Japan vs France Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men’s Basketball

The Japanese men’s national team laid an egg in its first game at this year’s Olympic Games, falling 97-77 to a seasoned German squad over the weekend. Now, the test will get even tougher against the host nation, France, who will run a stacked lineup back onto the floor to aim for a second straight win.

Can France’s defense remain strong here against a Japanese side that struggled to shoot and score enough to exploit the many soft spots on the other side of the floor? My Japan vs. France predictions certainly think so.

Let's get right into it with our in-depth preview and Olympics picks for Japan vs. France on Tuesday, July 30.

Japan vs France prediction

My best bet
France -17.5 (-110)

My analysis

This is a massive mismatch, so it’s no surprise the line is quite lopsided. We have a Japanese team lacking talent, led only by Rui Hachimura and Yuta Watanabe, that faltered on defense by allowing nearly 100 points to Germany in its first game.

On the flip side of that coin, we have a stacked France side that faced a decently talented Brazil squad, playing an incredibly tight first half before suffocating the Brazilians in the third quarter en route to an impressive opening win.

The big story there was the defense, as France held Brazil to just 33.3% shooting from the outside and matched physicality inside. Japan lacks size inside, ranking 21st at last year’s FIBA World Cup in rebounds per game, and relies heavily on the outside shot, taking over 32 per game in that competition and launching 34 times against Germany.

The tough news is that Hachimura and Watanabe were targeted by the German defense, combining to go just 6-for-18, and France’s defense should continue to focus on these two and hold down this offense on the perimeter just as it did against Brazil. I can lean on an edge inside and a formidable offense that should be more than capable of getting hot against a weak Japan defense to earn a cover.

Wemby owns the glass

My Victor Wembanyama prop: Over 9.5 rebounds (-115)

Victor Wembanyama is tough to read in this spot, considering this is our first time watching him compete in international play. We do know he averaged more than 10 rebounds per game in his last year playing in France under the same rules, and he pulled down nine rebounds in France’s opening win over Brazil.

With that said, Brazil is an excellent team on the glass, ranking third in last year’s FIBA World Cup in rebounds per game and pulling down 32 against France to match its opponents. That also happened without much from Bruno Caboclo, who was in big-time foul trouble for most of the game.

I think that’s a pretty good sign coming into this meeting with Japan, who is significantly worse on the glass and only put forth a good showing on the boards in the first game of the Olympics against one of the few teams that may be worse in that regard.

I expect Wembanyama to get plenty of run, and while his points are a bit terrifying due to the blowout risk, we should see plenty of missed 3-pointers from Japan and plenty of rebounds falling into Wemby’s hands.

Japan vs France same-game parlay (SGP)

After touching on the French side and Wembanyama’s boards, it’s time we discuss one of the surprise focal points of this offense, which is Nicolas Batum.

The marksman played a hefty 34 minutes in the win over Brazil, matching Wembanyama with a team-high 13 field-goal attempts and leading the team with nine shots from deep. He would convert on three of these treys, and that follows a run he had with France at the FIBA World Cup where he took 4.7 threes per game — his highest average since 2014 for the French international side.

Germany was able to shoot a respectable 37.9% from deep against Japan and stretch forward Franz Wagner was able to pull eight times from outside, knocking down two of his shots, while another stretch-four in Daniel Theis hit both his triples and wing Isaac Bonga went 2-for-2.

So, I feel pretty good about backing a forward to shoot the lights out against Japan, and Batum’s done more than enough over his NBA career to make me a believer that he can help us get to the final leg of this parlay.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Japan vs France odds

Odds as of 7-30.

Japan vs France game info

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