France vs USA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men's Soccer

Group A kicks off with a bang when host nation France square off with the United States in their Olympic men's soccer match today.

France feature a loaded squad and are slight favorites to win the gold medal ahead of Argentina and Spain. Thierry Henry hopes to deliver just their second gold, 40 years after claiming their first. USA have not medaled in 120 years, and make just their first appearance in men’s soccer since the 2008 Olympics.

We preview the match and provide the best betting angle in our France vs. USA predictions for Wednesday, July 24.

France vs. USA prediction and best bet

The French laundry

Match prediction
France moneyline (-160)

My analysis

Thierry Henry has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal, especially when you consider several players in his squad easily could’ve represented France at the Euros this summer. Forward Michael Olise made a big-money move to Bayern Munich, and his former Crystal Palace teammate Jean-Philippe Mateta was in red-hot form to end the Premier League season.

Olise scored a phenomenal goal last week in their 1-1 draw with Japan, and the trio of him, Mateta, and Alexandre Lacazette leads a line that will cause issues for many teams in the tournament. That includes the United States, whose center-back partnership of Miles Robinson and Walker Zimmerman has senior USMNT experience.

But both players are employed in MLS, and there’s a huge gap in class between what they’ll face here and what they face at home. France’s midfield features playmaker Manu Kone, a budding star at Borussia Monchengladbach, while RB Leipzig's Castello Lukeba will defend in front of already-proven Ligue 1 keeper Guillaume Restes.

The USA attack will see Paxten Aaronson pulling the strings, but he’s going to need serious help. The team lacks a proven consistent goalscorer at the international level, with their best talent residing in the midfield. 

I expect the United States to make a run in this competition, but it won’t begin here. France have too much talent, with many of their starters in top form, and playing on home soil will be a huge boost as well

Hakuna Mateta

My best bet
Jean-Philippe Mateta anytime goalscorer (+130)

My analysis

Zimmerman and Robinson will have their hands full with Mateta, and he’s a terrific value to score. France will set up either in a 4-3-1-2 formation, with Lacazette and Mateta playing in front of Olise, or in a 4-4-2 with Olise wide on the right. 

Mateta is coming off a Premier League campaign in which he scored five goals in Palace’s final three matches. He had 16 goals in 35 league appearances, but he scored 13 of those goals across the final 13 outings of the season. 

Olise is the true danger man for France, and his goal against Japan gave him three in his two warm-up matches. But the United States will be aware of his threat and know they have to slow him down, which should free up Mateta for some chances.

Mateta scored France’s first two goals in their 4-1 victory over Paraguay’s U-23 team on July 4, including one from the penalty spot. His duties from the spot give him an added boost to score anytime, but his movement and clinical finishing are what make him such a threat. 

I expect France to find the back of the net multiple times against an MLS-heavy backline, and Mateta to be one finding his name on the scoresheet. His 16 goals for Palace this season came from just 10.9 xG as he repeatedly scored from tight angles. Mateta only needs one good chance to score, and I love him at plus-money. 

France vs USA odds

Odds as of 7-24.

France vs USA game info

Pages related to this topic