USA vs Morocco Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men's Soccer

The United States has reached the knockout stages of men’s soccer at the Olympics, and now it seeks a shot at its first-ever medal when it faces Morocco on Friday.

USA vs. Morocco prediction and best bet

Red, white, and blue days ahead

Match prediction
Morocco moneyline (+130)

My analysis

The United States wasn’t bad against France in its opener, but the 3-0 scoreline wasn’t far from accurately reflecting the balance of play on the day. While it defeated New Zealand 4-1 and Guinea 3-0 to close out group play, neither side presented much of a threat in the way the French did.

That all changes on Friday, as Morocco’s attack is one of the best in the competition, led by Soufiane Rahimi, Abde Ezzalzouli, and Amir Richardson. Rahimi has four goals already through three matches, leading an offense that created nine big chances and totaled 43 shots over three matches. 

Defensively, veteran Achraf Hakimi has been terrific and has also assisted a goal. Meanwhile, goalkeeper Munir has been stellar, making numerous key saves to help Morocco see out the opening match victory over Argentina. 

While it did suffer a shocking defeat in stoppage time to 10-man Ukraine, Morocco showed why it continued to be a threat at the past few World Cups. Against the United States, it's going to look to make the Yanks feel uncomfortable.

This American side thrives when they can control the ball, but have looked shaky when they’re pressured. They’ve also been wasteful at times in possession, and turnovers in bad spots could be their downfall in this match.

Morocco has shown all tournament it can pressure opponents, but its individual dribbling ability is similar to what France used to break down the Americans. Rahimi is a proven goalscorer and clinical striker who will punish them if he’s given chances, and that’s an area where the USA has been lacking.

I’ll back the roster that has shown they can beat a high-quality nation like Argentina, and one that has a striker upon whom they can rely. 

Golasso!

My best bet
Over 2.5 goals (-110)

My analysis

Considering how both teams like to play, I don’t see this being a cagey affair.

Of the six combined matches for these sides at the Olympics, we’ve yet to see a single match go under the 2.5 standard line. This one won’t be any different if it plays out the way I expect it to.

While the Americans don’t have a striker who produces consistent goals, they do have multiple midfielders and wingers who can punish Morocco in transition. Kevin Paredes of Wolfsburg scored two goals against Guinea and has been at the heart of much of their attack in the past two outings.

They can also strike from set pieces. This was evidenced by the gorgeous strike from Djordje Mihailovic to open the scoring against Guinea. Both he and Gianluca Busio — should he return to the lineup from injury — can find the back of the net from free kicks near the area.

Morocco’s three fixtures all ended with exactly three goals, but the xG numbers show more should’ve likely been scored. The team loves to shoot from any place on the pitch, and their pace will also create issues on the counter-attack.

I’m expecting both sides to concede shots while racking them up at the other end. The Americans posted 45 shots in the group stage but allowed 35, including 16 from Guinea. Meanwhile, Morocco allowed 33 shots, a number that skewed low given Iraq had just five. 

Neither like to sit back and defend, and that type of matchup lends itself to chances being created. I’m projecting a 2-1 or 3-1 win for Morocco, with either one cashing the Over for us. 

USA vs Morocco odds

• Spread: USA +0.5 (-165) | Morocco -0.5 (+115)
• Moneyline: USA +220 | Morocco +130
• Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-110) | Under 2.5 (-115)

USA vs Morocco game info

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