Canada vs France Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Women’s Basketball

Group B play in Olympic Women’s Basketball begins in what figures to be one of the more competitive brackets of the tournament. France is one of the strong favorites to medal and their first test comes against a Canadian team that is also not short of WNBA-quality talent.

My Canada vs. France predictions outline why I think the host nation's edge is being undersold in this matchup on Monday, July 29.

Canada vs France prediction

My best bet
France -10.5 (-104)

My analysis

For casual observers of women’s basketball at the international level, the discussion doesn’t often go far beyond Team USA's dominance. But if there is a nation with a chance to threaten America’s unparalleled success at the international level over the next several years, it is France. 

France is an incredibly deep team with more prospects in the pipeline, but their top-end players and stylistic advantages lead me to believe they’ll make short work of Canada.

Canada isn’t a bad team by any means, with numerous current WNBA players on the roster including Kia Nurse, Bridget Carleton, and Washington Mystics rookie Aaliyah Edwards. The Canadians also have former W players who make up a formidable frontcourt where they favor a bruising style over finesse basketball — they live in the paint and make their money at the foul line. 

Despite their talent, they’re a poor outside-shooting team with weak on-ball playmaking. While Nurse and Carleton are strong perimeter players, the team struggles to play a modern style because of limited shooting fours and fives in the program.

That puts them at a massive disadvantage. France has the depth to play a variety of styles and can put out lineups with strong shooting at all five positions. The French also have the two best players on the court, Marine Johannes and Gabby Williams. Johannes is an elite offensive player while Williams plays a Bam Adebayo-like role for the French team.

Williams has been out of the WNBA spotlight for a while now because a foot fracture ended her 2023 season and the league’s prioritization rule saw her choose to play in Europe over the W in 2024. But Williams is healthy and has All-Defense caliber talent and playmaking chops to boot.

While Canada is stuck in the relative stone age in terms of what counts as modern basketball spacing, France plays in an open court and their fives either shoot or initiate offense as a hub. France is balanced and deep, and its recent wins make it clear it's a tier or two above Canada.

Johannes styles on Canada

My Marine Johannes prop: Over 13.5 points (-130)

When learning to do anything, there are certain benchmarks that you hit, from basic understanding all the way to total mastery. At the very elite end of the scale, there’s a level of athletic skill where you aren’t just accumulating the collected wisdom of a discipline, your play hits a point where you are adding to it by combining experience and experimentation. 

Most players, even stars, don’t ever approach that level. But Johannes is one of the true basketball creatives.

Marine is one of those players who constantly tinkers, experimenting in and out of games, which makes her both incredibly entertaining to watch and unpredictable to defend. She shines brightest as an off-ball player, where she is an incomparably gifted shooter off of movement. She can catch a pass at a dead sprint, turn, and fire from a distance better than any current WNBA player. 

Her patented one-legged 3-point fadeaway isn’t just for style, either. It allows her to get to her shot quickly and create more space against her defender. Canada’s best defenders don’t have the quick twitch speed to match, and they’ll also be put in tough spots having to defend France’s bigs on the perimeter.

Canada vs France same-game parlay (SGP)

While the French offense is impressive, I don’t want to undersell how well they defend. Canada’s spacing is going to be a real issue against France, who has the size to match up against 6-foot-4 Kayla Alexander but also greater mobility and flexibility. 

In previous recent international competitions, Canada’s lack of elite creation has shifted the playmaking burden onto offensive players who are simply not suited for it. Without the ability to generate easy shots inside or out, it could be a slog for Canada to find any kind of offensive flow over 40 minutes. 

Its lack of elite passing is a compounding issue because it means that Nurse or Carleton, who are best suited as play finishers rather than initiators, will end up being on the ball — not only underperforming in that role but then not being present for where they could truly have an elite offensive impact.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Canada vs France odds

Odds as of 7-28.

Canada vs France game info

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