Germany vs USA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Women’s Basketball

Group C boasts a pair of undefeated teams and they’ll square off on Sunday morning when Germany takes on Team USA in each team's third and final matchup in Group play.

Team USA is riding a 56-game international winning streak, but Germany has been the surprise of the 2024 Olympic Games thus far. This is why my free betting picks for this exciting matchup expect a much closer affair than the ods believe when Germany meets the Americans on Sunday, August 4.

Germany vs USA prediction

My best bet
A'ja Wilson Under 22.5 points (-130)

My analysis
Team USA center A’ja Wilson has dominated the WNBA and she’s continued that trend throughout much of her Team USA career. The two-time WNBA MVP is firing on all cylinders for the 2024 Olympics; Wilson is tied for fifth in scoring (23.5 ppg) and has been outstanding in this small sample-size event.

She's the type of player who enjoys dominating her opponents inside the paint. The painted area is where she does most of her scoring by either driving to the lane or on the post-up and boasts a decent mid-range game.

The American doesn’t attempt many triples, nor does she make many, because that isn’t her game. As great as she is, she’ll have a tough time clearing her scoring prop as Germany boasts some strong interior defenders.

For Wilson to score 23+, she’ll need to get through fellow WNBA players Satou and Nyara Sabally, and if she does, she’ll see plenty of centers (Luisa Geiselsoeder and Marie Guelich) waiting in the paint.

The international rules allow for defenders to remain in the lane for as long as they wish without penalty; Germany’s interior defense is the main reason the first-time Olympians are 2-0; these ladies are extremely physical and Wilson may not see much of the ball as a result.

She's averaging 29 minutes per night but only played 26 minutes against Japan. With her minutes in decline and this being a game neither team needs to win to advance, head coach Cheryl Reeve may opt to lean more on her reserves.

Breanna's big game

My Breanna Stewart prop: Over 18.5 points (-130)

While Wilson may not get her full complement of points, versatile New York Liberty center Breanna Stewart may find scoring a bit easier against the physical German side. She averages 19.3 points for the Liberty, but she’s the third-leading scorer at these Olympics. Her ability to score at every level makes her a player the Germans won’t like to face.

The UConn grad has dominated these games for Team USA; she’s shooting 65% from the field but the career 35% long-range shooter has shot only 20% from downtown. Stewie is also getting five attempts per night at the charity stripe and she’s draining 90% of those.

While the FIBA rules limit players like Wilson, they benefit versatile scorers like Stewart. Stewie has cleared 19+ points in both preliminary round battles, and with the Germans likely focusing heavily on Wilson, Breanna’s versatility will allow her to clear this scoring prop. 

Germany vs USA same-game parlay (SGP)

These Wilson and Stewart props make a ton of sense on Sunday, but I also fancy Germany covering this huge number. Both groups are 2-0 in Group C, but they're trending in opposite directions against the spread — Germany is 2-0 ATS while the usually overpriced Americans are 0-2 against the number.

This game is filled with WNBA players; Satou and Nyara Sabally are tough as nails on both ends of the floor. Alexis Peterson and Leonie Fiebich have excelled during Germany’s first-ever Olympic Games appearance. These four along with Dallas Wings 2020 pick Luisa Geiselsöder are experienced enough to hang with Team USA.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Germany vs USA odds

Odds as of 8-3.

Germany vs USA game info

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