USA vs Japan Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Women’s Basketball

The U.S. women’s basketball team will begin its chase for an eighth straight gold medal as a heavy favorite against Japan. In fact, the Americans are not just looking for an eighth straight gold medal but are also trying to extend a 48-game Olympics winning streak.

With all due respect to Japan, Germany, and Belgium, that should hardly be a concern in group play.

That does not mean there is no value to be found in our USA vs. Japan predictions before tip on Monday, July 29, at 3:00 ET.

USA vs Japan prediction

My best bet
Sabrina Ionescu Over 1.5 threes (-140)

My analysis
International basketball is a more spread-out game than what we see in the NBA or WNBA. Some of that ties to the dearth of quality post players, but most of it is because of rule differences.

In FIBA competition, there is no limit on how much time a defender can spend in the paint. Getting to the rim becomes much more difficult, and thus, shooting becomes that much more important.

As much as the last decade in the NBA and the WNBA has seen a 3-point shooting revolution, led by Steph Curry and Sabrina Ionescu more than anyone else, it pales in comparison to the usual dependence on 3-pointers in FIBA play.

The U.S. does not inherently need those threes to keep winning in the Olympics. The American women have a talent advantage that should assure them victories, but the game will still encourage those 3-pointers. Such are the effects of those rules.

No one on the U.S. roster hits 3-pointers more often or more efficiently than Ionescu. Frankly, this prop should be either set at 2.5 or have an Over juiced close to -200. Getting Over 1.5 made 3-pointers at only -140 is a betting delight.

The worry may be that Ionescu will not play enough to put up that many shots with the USA favored by 20.5. But point differential could, at least in theory, matter for positioning after group play. The Americans will not ease up too early in this opening game.

Furthermore, the U.S. will want to establish its rotation for this tournament. Ionescu will be a leading piece of that rotation. That workload alone should guarantee Ionescu puts up enough 3-pointers to crack this prop. Frankly, she may need just two looks at the hoop to do that.

Wilson steps back

My A'ja Wilson prop: Under 20.5 points (-113)

A’ja Wilson is steamrolling toward her third MVP award, averaging 27.2 points this WNBA season. This prop is far too low for her, right?

Wrong.

Again, FIBA rules are different. Wilson does not live on the perimeter — taking only 1.6 threes per game this season, though hitting 39.5% of them. In the FIBA design, the ball simply will not be in Wilson’s hands as often.

It will find its way to Ionescu and Breanna Stewart much more naturally. Wilson will still score plenty, but until the U.S. is in a tense moment, she should regularly fall short of 20 points in Paris.

USA vs Japan same-game parlay (SGP)

Not all books offer 3-pointer props on this game, and even fewer allow that prop to be parlayed with other player props. This is a sign of the market's uncertainty, a relatively unknown one even if basketball is in the mainstream. I mean, can you name a single Japanese player? Sportsbooks want to protect themselves from added exposure.

But betting on Ionescu’s points prop is rather similar to the best bet of her hitting at least a pair of 3-pointers.

The emphasis on scoring by threes in FIBA competition should work out just fine for the American offense, increasing its chances of approaching 100 points in only 40 minutes.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

USA vs Japan odds

Odds as of 7-29.

USA vs Japan game info

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