2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks & Live Odds: Tracking the Action at Bay Hill

The PGA Tour's superstars are back in action this week for the fourth of 17 designated events: the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. 

To the surprise of... checks notes... absolutely no one, World No. 1 Jon Rahm is once again the solo betting favorite after winning for the third time this season two weeks ago. The field is otherwise jam-packed with 44 of the OWGR Top 50 and all 14 of this season's Tour winners.

We break it all down in our Arnold Palmer Invitational betting preview below, including outright odds, free golf picks, and more. 

Arnold Palmer Invitational picks and predictions

Tyrrell Hatton Top 30 (-110 at bet365)

Hatton’s history here at Bay Hill goes well beyond his victory in 2020. He finished runner-up a season ago and has finished outside of the Top 30 just once in six career tries. 

Though we say it almost every week, this is even more so a ball-striker's course and Hatton should be up to the task as he’s proven to be in past years. He’s gained strokes on approach in five of six years with showings of +7.72 in his 2020 victory, +6.96 in a 2017 fourth-place finish, and 3.96 in 2021 (T21). 

He’s also paired that with rather incredible putting performances; he’s gained a massive 5.5 strokes or more putting in three of those six starts – a massive advantage on a course that so often neutralizes guys on the green.

He ranks 12th in Par-5 scoring this season (4.44) – a critical stat when you consider how few and far between scoring opportunities come outside of Bay Hill’s four Par 5s in a routinely higher-scoring event. 

I’m not against being more aggressive with a Top-20 play at +150 but considering this field will be stronger than in years past, I’m playing it safer with a Top 30. 

Keith Mitchell over Tom Kim (-120 at DraftKings)

The Tom Kim buzz has certainly worn off since a superb start to his rookie campaign back in the fall and I believe Mitchell can take advantage this week. 

The rookie went T50 in Phoenix and T45 at Riviera – both designated events – and will once again be put to the test as a debutant at Bay Hill. The stellar iron play we’ve seen from him to start the season has regressed rather drastically and that should really hold him back this week.  

It’s been a much different story for Mitchell, who finished fifth at Riviera just two weeks after finishing fourth at Pebble Beach. He’s also proven he can hang here with two Top-6 finishes in four career API tries. 

Kim is uber-talented and should go on to win Rookie of the Year, but this week, the cards appear to be stacked against him. I’m taking the experienced Mitchell here at -120.      

Odds to win 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Arnold Palmer Invitational field and favorites

As mentioned at the onset, 44 of the World's Top 50 means this is another beefy, major championship field, but that's not stopping the usual suspects from rising to the top.

Jon Rahm (OWGR No. 1) enters the week a +700 solo favorite, followed by 2018 winner Rory McIlroy (No. 2) at +950 and defending champion Scottie Scheffler (No. 3) at +1,000. 

Rahm is making just his second career start here at Bay Hill (T17 in 2022), but Rory has been contending here for nearly a decade with a win among seven Top 15s in eight career tries.

There's a gap between the first and second tiers, with Willy Z and Morikawa the next best things at 21/1, followed by Max Homa at 22/1

There are also a couple of recent API winners in the field, including Rory and Scheffler as mentioned above, Jason Day (+3,100), Tyrrell Hatton (+3,600), and Francesco Molinari (+25,000).

Arnold Palmer Invitational recent winners and odds history

Let's take a look at some recent Arnold Palmer Invitational winners and their closing odds to win:

Odds courtesy of GolfOdds.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds FAQs

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