Scoring at Port Royal Golf Course depends heavily on the weather, and the forecast for Bermuda must be monitored closely this week with a Nor’easter in the area. Last year, Brian Gay was able to win at -15 in windy conditions, but another previous winner, Brendan Todd, got to -24 in benign conditions.
The course itself is pretty easy though, with Bermuda grass tee-to-green, three easy par fives, and several attackable par fours. Want a full course preview? Head over to Tour Junkies for more intel, and keep reading below for our full Bermuda Championship picks and predictions.
Bermuda Championship picks
- Hadwin (-110) over Schwab
- Hardy (-112) over Herbert
- Power (-120) over Reed
- Knox Top 20 (+240)
- Hubbard Top 20 (+250)
- Winner not in final group (+175)
Picks made on 10/26/2021 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Port Royal Golf Course betting stats that matter
Fairways are hit less often than the tour average at Port Royal, but we won’t weigh off-the-tee stats too heavily since the rough is not very penalizing. So, while this is a ball strikers course it is bomber friendly as well. The key to winning here is simple: hit it close and make the putts. That’s why strokes gained approach and Bermuda putting are the most important stats this week. We’ll also consider accuracy in windy conditions and par four scoring, but again it is the weather draw we’ll need to pay the most attention to leading up to Thursday.
- Bermuda putting.
- Strokes gained approach.
- Par 4 scoring.
- Recent form.
Bermuda Championship predictions
Adam Hadwin (-110) over Matthias Schwab
Schwab may be coming off back-to-back Top 20s in the EU but on the PGA Tour, his best finish is still T-32 at the 2020 3M Open. Recently, he missed the cut at Sanderson Farms, losing 3.5 shots around the greens and gaining zero on approach. You have to like the veteran Hadwin here, who just gained 5.7 shots on approach and 2.2 around the greens on his way to sixth at Shriners. Schwab is the better wind player, but Hadwin will see a rare opportunity to win in a weak field.
Nick Hardy (-112) over Lucas Herbert
Lucas Herbert can’t hit his irons right now. We prefer Nick Hardy this week and expect him to at least make the cut, which Herbert might not. Hardy is quietly gaining steam, with Top 40 finishes in all four starts since the beginning of 2021. That includes 14th on the Bermuda greens at Waialae and 26th on Bermuda at Sanderson Farms. Plus, over the last 24 rounds, Hardy ranks 10th in the field tee-to-green and 12th in ball striking. Herbert ranks 54th and 59th.
Seamus Power (-120) over Patrick Reed
Even sick and at death’s door, Reed would still rather be out on tour. Reed has struggled in two October starts, losing 5.2 shots off the tee on those wide fairways at the Summit Club, and at Shriners, he ranked near the bottom in approach. Aside from an odd, missed cut at Sanderson Farms, Seamus Power has been raking in big checks since February with four Top 10s and five Top 30s. He gained an incredible 6.5 shots on approach this month at Shriners and his July win at Barbasol also proves that Power knows how to pounce on a bad field. It may cause sticker shock to see Power laying juice vs. a major champion, but Reed just isn’t Reed right now.
Bermuda Championship top finisher predictions
Russell Knox Top 20 (+240)
Knox is a strong course history play, with 11th and 16th place finishes at Port Royal on his resume. In both instances, he came in playing just so-so like he does this week, but his putting has been improving. Plus, over the last 24 rounds, he ranks first in the field in strokes gained approach and second in ball stroking on courses under 7,200 yards.
Mark Hubbard Top 20 (+250)
You don’t get a par 71 under 7,000-yard course every week on the PGA Tour. So, Mark Hubbard knows he has to take advantage. His recent form is good, with four Top 20s since July and multiple shots gained on approach in five of his last seven starts. Hubbard has also been putting quite well. While Bermuda is his worst surface, he should be hitting those approach shots close enough to be in the mix on Sunday. Also, his recent struggles off the tee won’t matter as much at Port Royal where you can afford to miss some fairways.
Bermuda Championship prop pick
Winner not in final group (+175)
Port Royal has historically been set up for scoring on Sunday, which keeps the door open for a last-minute rush up the leaderboard. There were six round four scores of 65 or better last time and seven final rounds of at least -6 in 2020 (including a 62 that was nearly a 59 by winner Brendan Todd). Todd was in the final group with Harry Higgs, but he would have won anyway had he teed off two groups earlier. Brian Gay managed to win in a playoff after starting the final round outside of the final group and two shots back of leader Doc Redman. A 54-hole lead is just less safe here than other courses, so we’ll take a shot on the plus money.
