The Valero Texas Open is the final tune-up opportunity on the PGA Tour schedule ahead of the Masters, and it’s a solid field set to battle it out for a second consecutive week in the Lone Star State.
While Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, and Patrick Cantlay headline the betting favorites in the Valero Texas Open odds, I’m looking further down the board with my golf picks for this week’s annual stop in San Antonio.
Golf picks for the Valero Texas Open 2025
- Bradley to win outright (+2500 at FanDuel)
- McCarthy to win outright (+3000 at DraftKings)
- Kim Top 30 (+105 at bet365)
- Homa Top 40 (+170 at bet365)
- Aberg Round 1 Under 4.5 birdies (+100 at Caesars)
Valero Texas Open outright picks
Outright pick: Keegan Bradley
+2500 at FanDuel
This will be the seventh trip to the Valero Texas Open for Keegan Bradley, and he’s bookended his visits with Top-10 finishes. He’s also been a ball-striking force since winning the BMW Championship in August.
He's followed up that victory with another three Top-5 finishes and ranks second in true strokes gained tee-to-green and third in strokes gained on approach across the 10-tournament stretch.
Outright pick: Denny McCarthy
+3000 at DraftKings
Denny McCarthy has gained true strokes on approach and on the greens in five consecutive events to respectively rank fifth and second in this field in the two metrics during the heater. It’s also been a solid run with four Top 20s, including his T5 at The Genesis.
Of course, McCarthy also finished solo-second after losing in a playoff in this event last year while ranking second in true strokes gained tee-to-green and third in putting. He checks the current form and course history boxes.
Valero Texas Open prop picks
Finishing position pick: Si Woo Kim Top 30
+105 at bet365
This would be a much shorter number if Si Woo Kim didn’t miss the cut at the Houston Open last week. Still, it was an outlier poor two rounds on the greens, with Kim playing the weekend in each of his five prior events while carding four Top 25s.
He also gained true strokes across the board during the noted five-tournament stretch, which includes ranking fifth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green. This will also be his eighth trip to TPC San Antonio, and he’s made the cut in his past six visits, including finishing T4 in the 2019 edition.
Finishing position pick: Max Homa Top 40
+170 at bet365
Despite missing four consecutive cuts and showing absolutely no current form, Max Homa is still a six-time PGA Tour winner and finished T25 in this event while gaining true strokes across the board last year.
He’s sat out the past two weeks, and these odds are long enough to back Homa to flip the switch and have a solid week ahead of the major-championship season.
Valero Texas Open first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Ludvig Aberg Under 4.5 birdies
+100 at Caesars
TPC San Antonio has scorable holes, and while the winning score is often low in this event, only four players reached double-digits under par in 2024. Ludvig Aberg had four circles or fewer in three of the four rounds last year, and he only had five total birdies while missing the cut in his 2022 debut at the event.
Aberg is the betting favorite for a reason, but he’s also coming off a missed cut at THE PLAYERS, where he lost true strokes on approach for the second consecutive tournament. I’m expecting his primary focus to be on the Masters, too.
Look for a lot of lengthy birdie looks and tap-in pars from Aberg in Thursday's opening round.
Valero Texas Open odds
- Ludvig Aberg: +1200
- Tommy Fleetwood: +1400
- Corey Conners: +1600
- Patrick Cantlay: +1800
- Hideki Matsuyama: +2000
- Jordan Spieth: +2200
- Akshay Bhatia: +2500
- Keegan Bradley: +2500
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Not intended for use in MA.
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