The PGA Tour heads to Port Royal Golf Course this week for the Bermuda Championship odds. Only one OWGR Top 50 golfer will be teeing it up this week in what projects to be one of the lightest fields of the year.
However, that doesn't mean there isn't value to be had with a number of golfers looking to get ahead during the Tour's Fall slate.
Our Bermuda Championship betting picks and predictions look to shine a light on that value — most notably with a two-time Tour winner and his undeniable Port Royal track record.
Bermuda Championship picks
- Detry (-112) over Hardy
- Armour (-120) over Duncan
- Russell Knox Top 20 (+180)
- Garrick Higgo Top 20 (+275)
Picks made on 10/25/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bermuda Championship matchup predictions
Thomas Detry over Nick Hardy (-112 at FanDuel)
Thomas Detry has been profitable for us to start the season and while he did cool off at the Shriners (T69), I expect him to get back in the saddle in Bermuda this week. FanDuel has him matched up with Nick Hardy — each available at -112 — and I have some real concerns about the American.
Hardy has been riding some hot iron play during this Fall slate, gaining nearly 3.5 shots on approach in three starts. The concern with that is two-fold: he's far from an iron-play specialist, as he ranked just 144th in strokes gained approach in 2021-22 with even his best finishes rarely coming as a result of a spike in that part of his game.
And secondly... even with that hot iron play, he still only has one good result in three starts to show for it (T5 at Sanderson Farms) with the other parts of his game hovering around or below average.
In terms of course history, Detry finished T22 in his only start here a year ago while Hardy missed the cut. Even if the American has another great approach-play week, I'd still lean on the more well-rounded Detry. If that part of his game regresses, this becomes close to automatic.
Ryan Armour over Tyler Duncan (-120 at DraftKings)
Having finished outside the Top 175 in driving distance each of the last seven seasons, Ryan Armour is one of the shortest hitters you'll find in golf, and as you would with Brian Harman and others that fall in that category, you have to pick and choose the spots in which you back him.
Luckily for him, Port Royal plays just a shade over 6,800 yards — making it one of the shortest tracks on the Tour schedule — and the 46-year-old has proven himself as a great fit here with a pair of T8 finishes in 2019 and 2020.
And while his form has come and gone over the last year, he did close out the Korn Ferry Tour season with T22 and T5 finishes, which he parlayed into a T13 at Sanderson Farms a few weeks ago.
Tyler Duncan, meanwhile, missed back-to-back cuts to start the season before finishing 72nd at the Shriners and has finished inside the Top 30 just once (T13 at Barbasol) since the start of June. He did finish T18 here in 2019 but it's hard to have much faith in him with how forgettable he's been of late.
Bermuda Championship top finisher predictions
Russell Knox Top 20 (+180)
In scanning the Top-20 markets in Bermuda this week, one guy should immediately stand out: Russell Knox. The 37-year-old Scot has finished inside the Top 20 in all three career starts here at Port Royal (T11-T16-T12) with a scoring average just north of 68.
He's also finished inside the Top 25 in three of his last five Tour starts and while you may be discouraged from his 74th-place finish in the 78-man ZOZO Championship field, I'd note that he missed the cut in the event prior to Bermuda each of the last two years (Shriners in 2020 and 2021) and went on to notch Top 20s here.
As you'd expect with a Scotland native, Knox is extremely comfortable with windy, coastal golf and has an incredible track record to boot. Back him to go 4-for-4 inside the Top 20 this week (+180 at bet365).
Garrick Higgo Top 20 (+275)
Garrick Higgo has been on the receiving end of some buzz since winning the Palmetto Championship at Congaree back in 2021, and while he hasn't done much to follow up on that success over the last year and change, there are some signs that point to a good week for him in Bermuda.
The South African made his debut here last year and shot 67-72-65 in the first three rounds, putting him inside the Top 10 before ultimately losing it on the last six holes (+4) of a final-round 75 — a poor finish that bumped him all the way down to T34.
His game — specifically his iron play and putting — has been mostly feast or famine of late, with a third-place finish at Sanderson Farms sandwiched between missed cuts at the Fortinet and Shriners, but in considering what should have been a much higher finish a year ago, he's well worth backing at nearly 3/1.
