There are 70 players left in the hunt for the FedExCup Championship – or rather, there's Jon Rahm, and 69 others.
Rahm is the overwhelming favorite for this season's second-last stop for PGA Tour betting, the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland, as he's been the best golfer on the planet for the majority of the season That said, there should be no shortage of other storylines this week as bettors look for value in one of the most difficult course designs players will face in 2021.
We preview the field, break down the course and give our BMW Championship picks and predictions.
Caves Valley betting stats that matter
Caves Valley Golf Club is one of the less-heralded courses to host this tournament, but the Owings Mills, Md., setup is going to provide a significant test for the best golfers in the world. In addition to featuring plenty of elevation changes and dozens of strategically-placed bunkers in and around the landing areas, the course rough is expected to be aggravatingly long this week.
If you're looking for a betting edge, start with the big bombers. They'll not only be able to take a few shortcuts that medium and short hitters will have to pass up, they'll also have the opportunity to bypass many of the most dangerous landing bunkers. Bettors should also seek out players who excel at putting on bentgrass surfaces – particularly because these ones will run quick.
BMW Championship outright winner bets
You're not getting much value on Rahm to pull out the victory this week. He's installed at +650, well ahead of runner-up Xander Schauffele (+1,600). Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas are next in line at +2,000, while Cameron Smith is alone at +2,200. Other notables include last week's winner, Tony Finau, who is installed at +2,800.
Who will win The BMW Championship? Here are our best picks:
Jordan Spieth (+2,000)
A 73rd-place finish at The Northern Trust isn't going to instill much confidence in Spieth – but he has plenty going for him this week. Spieth has four Top-3 finishes in his previous 10 events overall, ranks 17th in SG: Total despite struggles with driving accuracy, and is one of the top Bentgrass putters on the planet. One bad round cost him a good finish last week, but he has been sensational otherwise and should be at or near the top of most bettors' outright cards.
Bryson DeChambeau (+2,800)
DeChambeau has had a terrific year overall – but when he can avoid fourth-round struggles, he's among the most dangerous players in the world. Final-round 77s at the U.S. Open and PGA Championship and a 74 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational took plenty of money out of his pocket. But this course is tailor-made to his style of game (specifically, grip it and rip it), and the trimmed-down field gives him an even better-than-usual shot at winning.
Rory McIlroy (+2,800)
Yes, we're taking the Top 2 players in driving distance on tour this season. And yes, we realize that this tactic might come across as overvaluing the most important betting-related stat of the week. Still, McIlroy has four Top-12 results over his last eight events and prevailed at the Wells Fargo Championship back in May – the last non-Olympic tournament played on a Tom Fazio-designed course. These are the kinds of courses where McIlroy traditionally dominates, so a wager here is money well spent.
BMW Championship matchup predictions
Abraham Ancer Over Corey Conners (-110)
We're going with the hot hand here. Ancer has been sensational since the beginning of May, with a win at the St. Jude Invitational, three other Top-5 finishes and seven Top-15 performances in his last 10 tournaments. And while he doesn't have the driving distance you'd like to see out of an outright play, he's just four yards back of Conners, who has three Top-15s in his past four tournaments, but is well back of Ancer in SG: Putting for the season. That settles this one for us.
Koepka Over Schauffele/Thomas/Morikawa/Cantlay (+360)
These five-way matchups feel like toss-ups more often than not, which is why you get great odds on all five players. We're most confident in the Koepka play here despite his recent form. He rattled off three consecutive Top-six finishes earlier this summer, including a T4 at the U.S. Open and a T6 at the Open Championship. And while this isn't quite in major territory, Koepka would love nothing more than to make up ground in the FedExCup standings. He has the all-around game to win this group.
BMW Championship prop bets
Top Continental European: Jon Rahm (-138)
Rahm is going to be on a ton of tickets this week after finishing third at The Northern Trust – his third consecutive Top-3 result dating back to his U.S. Open win (and not including his withdrawal from a Memorial Tournament he was leading after 54 holes). He has looked positively dominant this year, and especially over his past 11 events, during which he has posted eight Top-10s. All he has to do is hold off Viktor Hovland, Alex Noren and Sergio Garcia to cash this prop. Um ... okay. We're in.
Pick (odds)
TEXT
BMW Championship betting card
- Jordan Spieth Outright (+2,000)
- Bryson DeChambeau Outright (+2,800)
- Rory McIlroy Outright (+2,800)
- Abraham Ancer Over Corey Conners (-110)
- Koepka Over Schauffele/Thomas/Morikawa/Cantlay (+360)
- Top Continental European: Jon Rahm (-138)
Picks made 08/24/2021 at 11:10 a.m. ET.
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