The PGA Tour is back in Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson odds at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.
After a quiet week at the Wells Fargo, a field that includes seven of the Official World Golf Ranking's Top 15 will be back in action, highlighted by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Will Zalatoris, and more.
Who's best suited to leave the weekend victorious? Find out in our outright predictions, which include a favorite, sleeper, and longshot worth backing.
AT&T Byron Nelson outright picks
Picks were made on 5/10/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
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AT&T Byron Nelson outright picks
Among the favorites: Will Zalatoris (+2,200)
Everyone and their mother will be on Will Zalatoris this week — and for good reason. He's already been bet down to as low as +1,400 at some spots but William Hill and BetMGM still have him at 22/1.
The 25-year-old will be as familiar with TPC Craig Ranch as almost anyone else in the field this week, having played it hundreds of times since moving from California to Texas as a kid.
Where I think he can benefit most is on the greens, an area of his game that's consistently held him back from capturing his first PGA Tour title. However, it's not all gloom and bloom. At the Dell Match Play, he showcased an improved putting stroke and it was clear confidence was building.
That proved true at the Masters the following week, where he gained +1.4 strokes per round on the greens en route to a T6 finish. He lost strokes on the greens here a year ago (-1.08) but I'm expecting that newfound confidence in the putter to lend a much better result this time around.
Now, to the good stuff. Flatstick aside, Zalatoris has been as impressive as anyone on Tour this season. Five finishes of T6 or better in just his last eight starts, including the aforementioned T6 at Augusta National and a solo-second at the Farmers that just as easily could have been a victory.
Ranks second on approach, second from tee to green, and 11th off the tee all while continuing to get longer (currently 18th in driving distance). He dominated this course with his ball-striking a year ago, leading the field in strokes gained approach (+2.37 per round) and ranking third from tee to green (+2.67), ultimately finishing T17.
There's inevitable and then there's Will Zalatoris winning for the first time type of inevitable. When you consider the premier ball-striking, familiar track, and the confidence he's building with his putter, few weeks make more sense than this one.
Sleeper to watch: Aaron Wise (+5,000)
There's been some buzz surrounding Aaron Wise's game of late, and he's really starting to produce some quality results, with finishes of T17, T21, and T6 over his last five Tour starts.
Like Zalatoris, putting is Wise's weak link but he's otherwise solid across the board, ranking 22nd tee-to-green, 18th in greens in regulation, and 36th in total strokes gained this season.
And also like Zalatoris, his putter seems to be trending in the right direction, gaining strokes on the green in eight of his last 12 events (ones that record strokes gained) dating back to a pair of Top-8 finishes at the Shriners and CJ Cup at the start of the year.
He won this event in 2018 when it was played at Trinity Forest, cruising to a three-shot victory (23-under) over Marc Leishman. That was his first and only Tour victory.
Obviously, we're at a different track this time around, but didn't we just watch Max Homa win an event for the second time on a different course?
Longshot worth a look: Cameron Champ (+6,000)
I picked Cameron Champ in Mexico a couple of weeks ago and I'm going back to him here. The Tour Junkies are also backing him in their best top finisher picks for the week.
After finishing T10 at Augusta National, Champ was very much in the running coming down the back-nine at Vidanta, ultimately finishing T6. He now comes to a course that should be better suited for his length and prowess off the tee.
Champ leads the PGA Tour in driving distance (323.5 yards) and ranks ninth in strokes gained off the tee. That length will pay dividends at a TPC Craig Ranch track that's wide open and isn't very penal from the rough.
His putting has been much improved of late, meaning just a strong week of iron play stands between him and Sunday afternoon contention. Available at 60/1 at PointsBet, this is well worth your attention.
