The FedEx Cup Playoffs are finally here with the first event — the FedEx St. Jude Championship — taking place at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee.
As expected, the field is packed with the likes of Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, and more lining the FedEx St. Jude Championship odds board.
With 2,000 FedEx Cup points going to the winner, this week is critical in determining positioning for the TOUR Championship in two weeks' time.
Who will capitalize? Find out in our FedEx St. Jude Championship outright predictions, which include a favorite, a sleeper, and a longshot.
FedEx St. Jude Championship outright picks
Picks were made on 8/8/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
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FedEx St. Jude Championship outright picks
Among the favorites: Patrick Cantlay (+1,600)
Rory McIlroy is playing the best golf since the COVID-19 restart and is entering the week a deserved favorite, but his slim odds ranging from +900 to +1,100 are less than ideal. As such, we're pivoting to someone playing just as well if not better than the Irishman with more favorable odds: Patrick Cantlay.
Cantlay has just one victory this year — the Zurich Classic alongside his good pal Xander Schauffele — however, last year's FedEx Cup Champion is entering this year's playoffs in even better form than he did this time last year.
Across his last eight starts, Patty has four Top-4 finishes, including a playoff loss at the RBC Heritage and another runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage just a couple of weeks ago. He's missed just one cut in that span and has no other finish worse than T14 at the U.S. Open. He's been extremely consistent and has continued to find himself on the front page of leaderboards.
As it oftentimes does, Cantlay's putter has been running hot of late, making him even more dangerous as we enter the final stretch of the season. He ranks ninth in strokes gained putting for the season and has gained +1.09 or more strokes per round on the greens in five of his last six starts, with the other start being a slightly more human effort of +0.76.
He remains a wizard around the greens and while his season-long ball-striking numbers have taken a slight dip from last season (24th to 50th on approach, third to 19th tee-to-green), they've been on the uptick over the last two months with some incredible iron-play performances at the RBC Heritage, Masters, Memorial, and Rocket Mortgage.
Cantlay's good-but-not-great history here at TPC Southwind features a personal-best T12 finish in 2019 as well as a T23 and T35 the last two years. Either way, a bet on Cantlay this week is one on his red-hot form and his comfortability in these pressure-filled moments.
Sleeper to watch: Cameron Young (+2,800)
Can't stop, won't stop picking Cameron Young to win a golf tournament. His time is coming.
His name carries a ton of weight at this point in the season, and for very good reason, but with every single top golfer in the field this week, he's not among the favorites and is actually nearing 30/1 on most odds boards.
That's a magical number for a guy who's finished second or third in....*checks notes*... five of his last eight Tour starts, and that includes a runner-up at St. Andrews and a T3 at the PGA Championship. Not only is this guy not intimidated by these big-boy fields, but he's also proven he can contend against them.
He does most of his damage off the tee, where he ranks second in strokes gained and eighth in driving distance. That consistently allows him shorter clubs into greens (33rd in proximity to hole) and while his putter can sometimes run hot-and-cold, he ranks seventh in birdie average (4.43) and 12th in scoring average (69.81) for the season. He knows how to put it all together for 18 holes.
With how many times he's been around the hoop the year, it's nearly a miracle he hasn't been able to win one. But he's set himself up well for the playoffs and will surely give himself more chances.
Longshot worth a look: Davis Riley (+10,000)
After kickstarting his season with a playoff loss runner-up at the Valspar, Davis Riley has quietly been on the more consistent golfers for a better chunk of the Tour schedule.
The likely Rookie of the Year runner-up (behind Cam Young) went on a run of five straight Top-15 finishes including a couple of Top 5s in Mexico and the Charles Schwab. More recently, he bounced back from a couple of missed cuts with a T13 at the Wyndham last weekend. He enters the playoff stretch 23rd in the FedEx Cup standings, just 44 points behind... Collin Morikawa.
None of his season-long strokes gained numbers stand out as particularly outstanding, but he's gaining strokes in all major categories and ranks 14th in birdie average (4.19).
Of the guys in the 80/1 to 150/1 range this week, none have been in contention or in the mix more this year than Riley. Another such week for him shouldn't come as a shock to anyone.
