Tiger Woods will play host for the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas this week. After no tournament in 2020 due to COVID-19, the tournament is back with 20 of the world's top players including betting favorite Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, new dad Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, and his best buddy Bryson DeChambeau. The betting payouts are slim on this board with only 20 players and no cut, but we’ve still managed to find value in matchups and props.
Hero World Challenge picks
- Thomas (-118) over DeChambeau
- Ancer (-108) over Berger
- Fitzpatrick (-102) over Simpson
- Sam Burns Top 5 (+230)
- Justin Rose Top 5 (+410)
- Hovland Wins Wire-to-Wire (+3500)
Picks made on 11/30/2021 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Albany Golf Club betting stats that matter
Albany GC will play just over 7,400 yards with Bermuda greens and ample scoring opportunities on a layout that includes five Par 5s. Fairways are easy to hit here but bombers don’t have a big advantage. Ball striking and approach play will matter more, which is how Henrik Stenson became the defending champion. We’ll also focus on recent form more than usual for betting picks this week. It’s the time of year when some guys are still grinding, and some are just fulfilling an obligation.
- Strokes gained approach.
- Par 5 scoring.
- Bermuda putting.
- Recent form.
Hero World Challenge matchup predictions
Justin Thomas (-118) over Bryson DeChambeau
Bryson got his butt kicked at The Match last weekend. He looked bad off the tee, hardly hit any good approach shots, and couldn’t make a putt. It was his first competitive action since the Ryder Cup and he won’t have a ton of time to tinker prior to the Hero, where he hasn’t finished better than T12 in two tries anyway. Thomas also doesn’t have a great history at Albany GC but he’s playing more than Bryson and better than Bryson right now. JT will be extra motivated to win at Tiger’s event this year and he’s been riding a hot ball-striking streak since early August. It’s an inconsistent putter that keeps JT from winning more often but we think he can beat Bryson on ball-striking alone here.
Abraham Ancer (-108) over Daniel Berger
Where has Daniel Berger been since the Ryder Cup? Hero World Challenge will be his first event in months and we’re thinking he has been grinding on his boat, not on the range. If you crunched the stats on this matchup, they’d probably point you in the direction of Berger, but they’d all be from prior to the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Meanwhile, Abraham Ancer has cashed checks for a 14th-place finish at CJ Cup and 7th at Mayakoba. We’ll take the good-recent-form guy as an underdog vs the potentially-rusty guy.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (-102) over Webb Simpson
It was just last week that Fitzpatrick was in the mix to win against Morikawa, Rory and other super elites on the DP World Tour. Now he’ll be looking to stay hot in elite company as he makes his debut at the Hero World Challenge. Simpson is the favorite against Fitz based on having gained 9.8 shots on approach at Sea Island, but we all know that RSM is set up for the Webb’s of the world. Fitz should create more chances to score on the Par 5s here and he’ll be right at home on the Bermuda greens. It’s Webb who is known as a great Bermuda putter, but Fitzpatrick leads this field in Bermuda putting over the last 24 rounds while Webb ranks 12th.
Hero World Challenge top finisher predictions
Sam Burns Top 5 (+230)
Including his May win at Valspar, Burns now has Top 20 finishes in 11 out of 14 events. Seven of those 14 were Top 10s! The downside of Burns is that he’s not an elite putter. However, all that changes when the kid gets on some Bermuda. Over the last 24 rounds, Sam Burns ranks 2nd in this field in Bermuda putting.
Justin Rose Top 5 (+410)
People talk about Rose like he’s not a real contender anymore, but the former OWGR No. 1 has been quietly playing some good golf on the PGA Tour. After a 12th-place finish Rose gets a home game at Albany GC. Justin lives on the island and has finished T5 and 3rd in his last two tries at the Hero World Challenge. You know he’ll be rolling the rock on these Bermuda greens and as a local, he’s the least likely to be on island time vacation mode this week.
Hero World Challenge prop predictions
Viktor Hovland Wins Wire-to-Wire (+3500)
Hovland looks like he’s about to put together a big year for himself in 2022 after another brilliant win in Mayakoba. He doesn’t have course history at Albany, and we don’t care. It’s debutante season after all and all three of Vik’s career wins have happened in the Caribbean. Hovland checks the boxes on ball striking, Par 5 scoring and he’s been putting great. After losing strokes on the greens in six consecutive events after the PGA, Viktor gained 5.5 on the greens at CJ Cup. There is no putting data from Mayakoba, but we saw it with our own eyes, and it was damn good. Take Hovland outright and sprinkle on this wire-to-wire win prop if you sniff a dominant performance as we do.
