Now that the jam-packed West Coast swing is in the rearview, the Tour moves East for the Florida swing, starting with the Honda Classic at PGA National.
Matt Jones ran away from the field in his 2021 victory but Sungjae Im — the 2020 champion — enters as the pre-tournament betting favorite (+1,200).
Sungjae along with Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka, and last week's winner Joaquin Niemann are highlighting a much lighter field with many of the Tour's top stars resting for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in early March.
A lesser field means an opportunity for the not-so-household names to shine. We break down a trio of names to keep your eyes on in our outright picks for Honda Classic odds below.
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Honda Classic outright picks
Among the favorites: Sungjae Im (+1,200)
It's awfully chalk of me to run with the solo favorite this week but this is an incredibly weak field and there are some red flags pushing me away from the other guys at the top of the board.
Daniel Berger is dealing with an injury and missed the cut in Phoenix two weeks ago, Brooks Koepka struggles to muster up motivation in fields like these, Louis Oosthuizen has historically struggled here and has made just one start in three months, and asking Joaquin Niemann to win in back-to-back weeks seems like a stretch.
That leads us to Sungjae Im (+1,200), who's the solo favorite this week for good reason.
Sungjae, known as one of the Tour's certified grinders, took home the Honda Classic title back in 2020 and followed it up with a T8 finish here last year.
He's posted finishes of T6, T18, and T11 in three of his last five starts dating back to the Sentry and is only a few months removed from his 4-shot win at the Shriners back in October.
He enters the week with a career scoring average of 69.25 at the Honda, topping anyone and everyone who's played 10+ rounds at this track.
Who's second in that category? Try Tiger Woods.
In 31 rounds this season, Sungjae ranks fourth in total strokes gained, second around the green, and seventh tee-to-green. He might be the best ball-striker in this week's light field.
That lethal combination of ball-striking and scrambling makes him a great fit at PGA National and should give him a great chance to win for the second time in three years.
Sleeper to watch: Keith Mitchell (+3,300)
Keith Mitchell has reappeared on many of our radars over the last few weeks but this is a guy I've been taking seriously since he went head-to-head with Rory McIlroy at last year's Wells Fargo (T3).
I've been looking for the right week to back him, and while the increasingly-heavier fields we've seen of late have made him hard to place, this week makes too much sense.
He's returning to the site of his sole PGA Tour victory, the 2019 Honda Classic, and is doing so in maybe the best form of his career.
A missed cut at Torrey Pines a month ago is sandwiched by four strong results of T12 or better, including T7 at the Sony Open and a T10 in Phoenix.
The 30-year-old has consistently been one of the Tour's best with driver in hand, ranking a career-best third this year in strokes gained off the tee (11th, 21st, 6th, 7th).
And while it's still early in the year, he's showcased huge improvements in the other areas of his game in the new season, most notably tee-to-green (124th to 15th) and around the green (185th to 39th).
Mitchell is playing the best, most consistent golf of his career and is back at the place he secured his first Tour victory. Why can't history repeat itself?
Longshot worth a look: Brendan Steele (+8,000)
Brendan Steele at +8,000 is a total buy-low bounceback play.
Steele is on a run of four straight missed-cuts dating back to the Sony Open in mid-January with his last strong result being a T2 finish at ZOZO in the Fall.
With that said, he's coming to a property that's treated him very well in his career. He's come here in less than optimal form the last two years and still posted strong results.
Last year, his T3 finish at the Honda was sandwiched by a T41 and three finishes of T70 or worse. In 2020, he came in off back-to-back missed-cuts, finished T4, and even missed the cuts in his following two starts.
Otherwise, Steele has T14 finishes in 2016 and 2017 as well as a T11 in 2015. Regardless of form, he can almost always piece together a really strong week at PGA National.
He's on the board this week at +8,000 (+4,000 in 2021) and while those missed cuts may be hard to look past, that's too good a number to pass up for a guy who's gone T3 and T4 his past two times out.
