The PGA Tour switches coasts this week for the Honda Classic. Most of the world’s top players will skip this event, creating ample opportunity for long shots and rising stars to advance their careers at PGA National. That is if they can survive the 'Bear Trap’.
Let’s make some bets and hang onto our seats for the scariest tournament in golf as we bring you our best golf betting picks and predictions for Honda Classic odds, set to tee off from February 24-27.
Honda Classic picks
- Oosthuizen (-120) over Fleetwood
- Vegas (-118) over Young
- Mitchell (+100) over Koepka
- Brian Harman Top 20 (+230)
- Lucas Glover Top 20 (+360)
- Greyson Sigg Top 20 (+500)
Picks made on 2/22/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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PGA National stats that matter
The PGA National Champions course is a par 70 that measures 7,125 yards with Bermuda grass tee-to-green and some thick rough. This course also features a ton of water hazards and an infamous stretch of difficult golf holes known as the ‘Bear Trap’. Two of the par fives are reachable for scoring but otherwise, this is a real grinder’s course and one of the most difficult tests on Tour.
Considering the potential for carnage here, we’ll weigh recent form more heavily than normal vs. course history. We want to invest in guys who are playing their best coming into this week first and foremost.
- Driving accuracy.
- Bogey avoidance.
- Bermuda putting.
- Ball-striking and approach.
- Recent form.
Honda Classic matchup predictions
Louis Oosthuizen (-120) over Tommy Fleetwood
Tommy Fleetwood is getting a lot of credit for a guy who has decent history here but stinks everywhere else in the US. Two top 10s in 2021 on the PGA Tour and one in 2020 are not enough for Tommy to be treated like an elite player by the oddsmakers. We don’t care what he’s done abroad. There are seven players below him who should be above him in the outright market.
One of them is Louis Oosthuizen who ranks seconding the field on approach, fifth around the greens and first in DraftKings points over the last 50 rounds. Fleetwood is 51st in approach and 50th in DK points over that same span.
Jhonattan Vegas (-118) over Cameron Young
Vegas ranks third in this field over the last 50 rounds in strokes gained tee-to-green on difficult courses. He’s also coming off very good approach and driving performances at both the Farmers and the Genesis. Cameron Young is making his debut at the Honda and needed to gain 5.9 shots with the flat stick to get the second-place finish. His approach numbers are inconsistent week-to-week and he has not been very good around the greens either. Give us the more experienced guy who plays his best on hard courses to finish better as the tour switches coasts.
Keith Mitchell (+100) over Brooks Koepka
Brooks gets elite treatment on the board this week based on the strength of field and his performance in Phoenix. However, the numbers for Brooks tell a different story. He’s lost strokes off-the-tee all of his other 2022 starts and WMPO was his only decent approach performance. He also has multiple missed cuts at the Honda (along with a runner-up in 2019).
Mitchell, who has a win here, comes in playing much better according to the stats. He’s gained strokes off-the-tee in 13 consecutive starts and is coming off 12th at Pebble and 10th place in Phoenix. He gained more than 2 shots on approach at both. Keith’s putter hasn’t been great recently but he may not need to make many to finish better than Brooks this week.
Honda Classic top finisher predictions
Brian Harman Top 20 (+230)
Harman ranks third in this field over the last 50 rounds in overall strokes gained on difficult courses. The numbers show that he does great work around the greens and can really scramble when the scoring conditions are at their hardest. After gaining 2.5 shots off the tee and 3.2 on approach two weeks ago at TPC Scottsdale, Harman also checks the box for recent form. Another indicator here is the number. While the +230 is still out there on FanDuel, other books have dropped the Harman line as far as +150 based on the early betting action.
Lucas Glover Top 20 (+360)
If Lucas Glover could putt we’d be taking him to win here, but he can’t. So, top 20 is the move on a guy who just gained 2.7 shots on approach and 3.2 shots around the greens at WMPO. Glover ranks 10th in the field in approach over the last 24 rounds and 19th tee-to-green. He's also been doing a good job with bogey avoidance. PGA National is where Lucas got his hot spring and summer started last year that eventually lead to a win at John Deere. We think he’ll see an opportunity to get on the same path again in 2022.
Greyson Sigg Top 20 (+500)
Somehow Greyson Sigg keeps finishing outside the top 20 despite some very strong approach play and gaining strokes tee-to-green in three of his last four events. We think a week off could be just what he needed to switch coasts and breakthrough at Honda. A key stat on this menacing course is going to be bogey avoidance. Sigg ranks 14th in the field over the last 36 rounds in bogeys avoided and in more recent history, he ranks third in the field in birdie/eagle opportunities gained over the last 12 rounds.
