After a couple of weeks down south, the PGA Tour makes its way back to the U.S. for this week's Houston Open odds at Memorial Park Golf Course.
The likes of World No. 2 Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, and Tony Finau are atop the odds board, however, the betting value lies with the more in-form guys continuing to make noise through the Fall slate.
Those are the ones we're targeting this week — find out who in our Houston Open golf picks and predictions below.
Houston Open picks
- Dahmen (-110) over Mitchell
- NeSmith (-110) over Grillo
- Maverick McNealy Top 20 (+130)
- Jason Day Top 20 (+155)
Picks made on 11/8/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Houston Open matchup predictions
Joel Dahmen over Keith Mitchell (-110 at Betway)
Considering Keith Mitchell's nonexistent-if-not-horrible form and the week Joel Dahmen just had in Mayakoba (T3), these odds don't make a ton of sense to me.
Mitchell has gone T60-T40-MC in three starts this season and hasn't finished inside the Top 30 going all the way back to the start of July. It's not much better in Houston, either: a T41 finish and a missed cut in his last two starts here at Memorial Park with his personal-best T6 coming all the way back in 2018 at a different course.
Dahmen, for all of the fun moments he produces, has been playing some awesome golf of late, finishing inside the Top 20 in three of his last four starts, including the aforementioned third-place finish in Mayakoba last week. He finished T5 here in Houston a year ago and should have a considerable edge against Mitchell this week.
Matthew NeSmith over Emiliano Grillo (-110 at DraftKings)
Emiliano Grillo has been on his grind during the Fall slate but I'm worried it may be starting to catch up with him.
This week in Houston will mark his sixth start in seven weeks, presenting the perfect opportunity to fade the Argentinian. A fourth-place finish for him at the ZOZO is sandwiched between T73, T45, and T42 finishes across his last four starts as opposed to a Matthew NeSmith who's been resting since mid-October and remains in stellar form.
NeSmith is on a run of three straight Top-10 finishes, highlighted by a runner-up finish at the Shriners. He gained more than three shots on approach between the Sanderson Farms and Shriners and the rest of his game is more than holding its own.
Houston Open top finisher predictions
Maverick McNealy Top 20 (+130)
Maverick McNealy continues to find himself in the mix to start the new season, finishing inside the Top 20 in each of his last four starts.
His putter is hot and while his ball-striking has been just fair, he has had some great success with his irons here in Houston, gaining nearly three strokes on approach in his three career starts — all of which were finishes inside the Top 20.
This might be the last time this Fall we get to back an in-form Mav at relatively decent odds (shortened from +162 last week). If he plays well again this week, whatever value is left here will surely be gone the next time he tees it up.
Jason Day Top 20 (+155)
I'd be extremely reluctant to say Jason Day is back, but we can't dispute his quality performances to kick off the new season.
The former World No. 1 followed up a missed cut at the Fortinet with finishes of T8 at the Shriners, T11 at the CJ Cup, and T21 in Mayakoba last week. His approach play has been stellar, gaining more than a shot on approach in his three starts with ShotLink data.
I'd have been concerned with betting on him after just one or two decent results due to his well-documented inconsistencies in recent years, but it feels like he's turning a corner after really only showing some flashes last season.
