The heavy hitters of the golf world will descend upon Royal St. George's next week for the first Open Championship since 2019 — but first, we'll be treated to a decidedly weaker field at the John Deere Classic.
Only a handful of the top golfers in the FedExCup standings will appear at TPC Deere Run this week, primarily because the D.A. Weibring-designed course bears absolutely no resemblance to the daunting links course players will face at next week's final major of the 2021 season. There is, however, a great deal of motivation for the majority of players in the field: A win this week in Illinois will earn the victor an automatic spot in the Open Championship.
We preview the field, break down the course, and give our golf picks, predictions, and best bets for the John Deere Classic.
John Deere Classic betting stats that matter
This tournament was scratched last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but there's still plenty of history from which to draw for betting purposes. And we'll start with two words: track meet. This tournament is going to feature enough birdies to make a bettor's head spin, with the winning score coming in no worse than 18 under in every event since 2009.
The fairways are wide and the holes aren't overly long, which means that SG: Off-the-Tee will be virtually meaningless this week. So, too, will GIR success rate, since just about everyone will be hitting more greens than normal. Bettors should focus mostly on SG: Approach (iron play will quite likely decide the tournament) and birdie rate, since contenders will need to convert a lot of them.
John Deere Classic outright winner bets
How watered down is this field? The No. 23 player in the FedExCup points race, Daniel Berger, is the odds-on favorite to prevail this week at +1100. Brian Harman is next in line at +1400, with Sungjae Im (+1800) the only other player with odds below +2000. The next tier of golfers features Russell Henley (+2000) and Kevin Streelman (+2500).
Who will win the John Deere Classic? Here are our best picks:
Russell Henley (+2000)
Henley has shown solid form of late with four Top-20 finishes over his past nine events, highlighted by a T13 at the U.S. Open, where he was at or near the top of the leaderboard in each of the first three rounds. Henley has one of the strongest iron games in the field, ranking fourth on the PGA Tour in SG: Approach (0.857). He also finished second the last time this tournament was played, closing out a sensational performance with a final-round 61. Henley is worth an outright play this week.
Zach Johnson (+5000)
Johnson is in the midst of one of the worst seasons of his PGA Tour career, having recorded just three Top-10 finishes in 21 events. But a T25 at the Travelers Championship is reason for optimism, and he has been terrific at TPC Deere Run, with six Top-three performances in 18 career visits (including a win in 2012). He's also the best Bentgrass putter on tour this season, and ranks third in SG: Putting overall (0.769). Johnson's best years might be behind him, but he has dominated here.
John Deere Classic matchup predictions
Kyle Stanley Over Lucas Glover (-120)
We can't emphasize enough how important a good approach game is this week. And Stanley has one of the best, ranking 18th overall in SG: Approach (0.521) and seventh in approaches from 125-150 yards, which will be a sweet spot for players at TPC Deere Run. Glover, by comparison, ranks 102nd from that distance and 177th from 100-125 yards. Coupled with an SG: Putting ranking outside the Top 100 tour-wide, and we don't see Glover keeping pace with Stanley and his red-hot irons.
Troy Merritt Over Hank Lebioda (-120)
Don't look now, but Merritt has carved out a rather impressive stretch of golf since the beginning of May, with four Top-eight finishes in eight tournaments. And he has his putter to thank for much of that success, having gained at least 0.7 strokes per round with the flat stick in six of eight events over that stretch. Lebioda has shown potential at times this season but has just two Top-10 results in 20 tournaments (both coming in his last two events). We'll take Merritt's prolonged stretch of success over Lebioda's recent hot spell.
John Deere Classic prop bets
Daniel Berger Top-10 Finish (+110)
There might not be much profit built into this wager, but it feels like one of the safer plays in the Top Finishes category. Berger is a whiz with the irons, ranking 14th on the PGA Tour overall (0.707 strokes gained per round) and boasting the best SG: Approach rate in the field by a considerable margin over his last 24 rounds. He also ranks ninth in birdie average, and finished fifth in his first visit to TPC Deere Run in 2017. Look for Berger to capitalize on a weak field to post his seventh Top-10 result of the season.
Doc Redman Top-20 Finish (+187)
We can't quite get a handle on ol' Doc heading into this one: He has two Top-10 results in his past seven tournaments but finished outside the Top-40 (with two missed cuts) in the other five. He has also played this course just once, placing 37th in 2019. Still, the tools are here: He ranks 50th in SG: Approach overall, and sits 12th from 100-125 yards out. And while his putting at the Rocket Mortgage Classic was gag-inducing, he had gained strokes with the flat stick in six straight weeks prior to that.
John Deere Classic betting card
- Russell Henley Outright (+2000)
- Zach Johnson Outright (+5000)
- Kyle Stanley Over Lucas Glover (-120)
- Troy Merritt Over Hank Lebioda (-120)
- Daniel Berger Top-10 Finish (+110)
- Doc Redman Top-20 Finish (+187)
Picks made 07/06/2021 at 9:46 a.m. ET.
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