PGA Tour action continues this week at Muirfield Village for the Memorial Tournament odds with a field highlighted by Jon Rahm (who should've won in 2021), Patrick Cantlay (the actual winner), as well household names like Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, and Collin Morikawa.
With another major just a couple of weeks away, this week's field is strong as the Tour's best look to get their games in tip-top shape. Will the weekend leaderboard be jam-packed with betting favorites like it was a year ago or could a longshot climb the board and threaten victory?
Find out in our Memorial Tournament outright predictions, which include a favorite, a sleeper, and a longshot worth backing before things get going on Thursday, June 2.
Memorial Tournament outright picks
Picks were made on 5/31/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
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Memorial Tournament outright picks
Among the favorites: Jon Rahm (+1,000)
I rarely advise going chalk with the No. 1 guy on the odds board, but it feels like the stars are going to align for Jon Rahm this week.
This time last year, Jon Rahm was preparing to take a six-shot lead into his Sunday round in what would have been a sure-fire dominant victory. A positive COVID test forced his withdrawal after Round 3, allowing the tournament to fall into Patrick Cantlay's lap.
The short-term loss resulted in a massive long-term gain (winning the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines a few weeks later), but a win here a year ago would have been another meaningful accomplishment. It also would have swung the PGA Tour Player of the Year race, which also ended up in Cantlay's hands.
Now, with the Spaniard's T48 at Southern Hills and a mostly-uninspiring victory at the Mexico Open a couple of weeks prior, his current form may not instill a ton of confidence (especially at this 10/1 number). However, his history here can't be overstated.
He enters the week a defacto two-time defending champion, having also won this event in 2020 by three shots, making him the clear man to beat. Furthermore, while his form has been a little shaky relative to what we expect from the former World No. 1, his game is still holding up statistically.
He leads the Tour in strokes gained off the tee, ranks second from tee to green, and 22nd on approach. A shaky putter has been holding him back this season (109th), but some familiar Bentgrass greens should do wonders in getting him back on track with the flat stick, gaining nearly two shots on the field per round here a year ago and more than half a shot in 2020.
This week is far from a major championship, but I do think Jon Rahm will tee it up with some extra motivation as he seeks revenge and tries to rewrite last year's unfortunate ending.
Sleeper to watch: Matt Fitzpatrick (+2,500)
Matt Fitzpatrick's road to a PGA Tour victory has been a long one — and one that's left him winless at 27 years old. However, I urge you to keep the faith.
While playing the "it's a matter of when not if" game can be a dangerous one, Fitz's season has been as good as anyone's. His results have been consistent if not stellar, with just two missed cuts and no other finish worse than T18 in his last 12 worldwide starts.
He's entering the week on the backs of a T2 at Wells Fargo and a T5 at the Southern Hills PGA Championship and also has the most impressive statistical profile of anyone on Tour this season, ranking first in total strokes gained, fifth from tee to green, and 10th in putting.
He's 13th in strokes gained off the tee despite ranking 118th in driving distance and his worst category? Strokes gained approach, where he ranks 29th (!). He doesn't hit it far but his game has been consistently well-rounded.
Last note: the Englishman has proven he can play well here, finishing solo third in 2020.
Maybe Fitz doesn't win this year, but the way he's played of late means he's going to keep giving himself great chances. Don't miss the boat.
Longshot worth a look: Patrick Reed (+6,500)
Love him or hate him, Patrick Reed is a name that deserves some more respect than this 65/1 number suggests.
If last week's T7 at the Charles Schwab Challenge is any indication, it appears P-Reed is finally healthy again and ready to contend after a few months of missed cuts and ho-hum finishes.
He also brings strong recent course history to the table, where he's finished inside the Top 10 three times in six tries, including solo-fifth a year ago. The Tour Junkies also like him to finish inside the Top 10 in their best bets and predictions.
His prowess around the greens gives him a real advantage no matter where he tees it up and he has a history of striking when you least expect it. That makes this 65/1 number worth your attention.
