AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks, Props, & Matchup Best Bets: Spotting Value in a Light Field

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am returns with three courses, a weak field, and plenty of Carlton dancing.

Will Zalatoris is now out with COVID, so Patrick Cantlay becomes an even heavier betting favorite along with the likes of Spieth, Berger, Rose, and the suddenly upright again Jason Day.

This is an event where some big bombs have gotten across the finish line, and there’s some real long-shot win potential again this week. Matchups and Top-20 markets could be the safest bets. 

You can also check out the full AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds to see where everyone stacks up as well a trio of Pebble Beach Pro-Am outright predictions. 

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks

• Streelman (-110) over Kisner
• Reavie (-105) over Harman
• Griffin (+100) over Fitzpatrick
• Maverick McNealy Top 20 (+130)
• Andrew Putnam Top 20 (+300)
• Greyson Sigg Top 20 (+550)

Picks made on 02/01/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Pebble Beach Golf Links stats that matter

Players who make the 54-hole cut will play two rounds at Pebble Beach, so that’s the course to focus on for key stat research. It’s a Par 72 that plays under 7,200 yards with poa greens that are some of the best on Tour but are very challenging to hit. All three courses are second-shot setups so approach is more important than bombing it. Scrambling could also be a factor like it was for Gary Woodland when he won the U.S. Open here. This is another week to focus on course history with many of the past champions having good finishes at Pebble before sealing the deal.

• Strokes gained approach.
• Scrambling.
• Course history.
• Poa putting.
• Good drives gained.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am matchup predictions

Kevin Streelman (-110) over Kevin Kisner

Streelman loves this place and he’ll be comfortable partnering once again with Larry Fitzgerald in the Pro-Am. Streels also has a massive course history advantage with a clean sweep of Top-14 finishes over the last five years at AT&T.  He comes off a 3.1 strokes gained approach performance at Torrey, which isn’t even a good course for Streelman. Kisner did just finish eighth at Sentry then third at Sony with fantastic putting performances but there’s something about this three-course setup and amateur tag-alongs that doesn’t suit him. In eight attempts, he’s only cracked the Top 20 here once and has a few missed cuts to boot. 

Chez Reavie (-105) over Brian Harman

This line screams recency bias because the Monterey Peninsula is a magical place where Chez Reavie actually contends. While Brian Harman hadn’t shown up at the AT&T since 2014, until last year, when it wasn’t a Pro-Am! Like the matchup above, we’ll take the course history guy here in Reavie, over the hot Harman who sneakily finished third at the Amex on a very good approach and solid putting week. However, if you look at their last 12 rounds played on tour, Reavie ranks 12th in the field in the keystrokes gained approach stat vs. 106th for Harman. 

Lanto Griffin (+100) over Matthew Fitzpatrick

Griffin is warmed up and looking to finish inside the Top 10 as he did at the AT&T Pro-Am in 2020. This will be his third consecutive week in action and we like the upward trend on approach stats and birdie opportunities for Lanto. Fitzpatrick gives the juice here because of his OWGR but this will be his first PGA Tour start since Mayakoba in early November where he finished 64th. Plus, in two tries at Pebble, Fitzy has a 60th-place finish and a missed cut. Take the dog. 

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am top finisher predictions

Maverick McNealy Top 20 (+130)

You have to pay up to bet Mav in this kind of field but we’ll take the plus money here. Mav just about won this thing in 2021 with a 66 at Pebble on Sunday. He knows his best chances to win are in California and he’s gotta be seeing a window of opportunity for his first career win here. We don’t expect a Sunday tumble down the board like Mav just had at Torrey, and it was a positive sign to see him finish birdie eagle in that horrendous round in front of his local friends and family. Plus, we like that in this field he ranks eighth off the tee, 15th in ball striking, and 10th in Par-4 efficiency over his last 24 rounds. 

Andrew Putnam Top 20 (+300)

Putnam is having a resurgence and actually ranks 18th in this field in birdie opportunities gained plus 13th in eagle opportunities gained over his last 24 rounds. Putnam's approach and tee-to-green numbers are also trending in the right direction after 27th at the Sony to start his season then 14th place at the Amex. He also has been driving the ball very accurately and scrambling well too. Three to one is a number that says the oddsmakers think he’ll have a good week too. 

Greyson Sigg Top 20 (+550)

Five and a half to one is a lot of juice for a guy who’s rolling the way Sigg is right now. Normally, we’d steer clear of a guy playing his fourth week in a row but he’s only 26 and he’s got to be motivated for that breakthrough performance at Pebble. Over his last 24 rounds played on courses under 7,200 yards, Sigg ranks 12th in the field in approach and 20th tee-to-green. He also ranks 11th in good drives gained and is near the top in proximity from 100-150 yards over his last 24.  

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