Welcome to the PGA Tour betting equivalent to the Royal Rumble (shout out to all of the WWE fans out there).
30 men will enter this week's season-ending TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Ga., but only one will walk away with the FedExCup title, the 2020 PGA Tour championship and a whopping $15-million top prize.
Changes in the FedExCup format means the golf odds are next to impossible for all but a handful of players to win, with each of the 30 participants going into the event with a "starting score," ranging from 10-under for Dustin Johnson to even par for the five poor souls at the bottom.
We preview the field, break down the course and give our favorite golf picks, predictions and best bets for the TOUR Championship.
TOUR Championship betting stats that matter
How about Starting Leaderboard? Let's forget about East Lake for a minute and talk about the huge advantage Johnson has over the field, opening with a two-shot advantage over Jon Rahm.
Justin Thomas (-7), Webb Simpson (-6) and Collin Morikawa (-5) are the only players who will begin the competition within five shots of the lead. That has significantly impacted the odds to win, though you can still bet on the 72-hole stroke play result at some books (which disregards the starting leaderboard entirely).
As for the course, it's one of the most unrelenting par-70s on tour, ranking 14th-toughest in scoring last year. The fairways are narrow, the rough is punitive (though not as much as a few of the tournaments leading up to the FedExCup finale) and the greens will be firm and fast, likely registering in excess of 13 on the Stimpmeter throughout the four-day event.
TOUR Championship outright winner bets
We'll be focusing on both sets of odds here, since bettors might prefer one strategy over the other. DJ is (surprise, surprise) the tournament favorite at +175 with the scoring boost and +550 without. Rahm is right behind at +275 and +550, respectively, while Justin Thomas is third at +550 to win with the scoring boost, and tied with Rory McIlroy at +1,000 to win from scratch.
Who will win the pinnacle event of the FedExCup season? Here's our best guess:
Dustin Johnson (+175 outright, +550 stroke play)
The reasons for taking DJ to win this event with the scoring boost are obvious: He has a two-shot lead without even taking a shot! He's also playing the best golf of anyone in the field, following up his utter decimation of the field at The Northern Trust by earning a spot in a playoff with Rahm at the BMW Championship last week, only to lose when Rahm jarred a 66-footer for the victory. DJ is in peak form, with a built-in lead – and we like him as an outright scratch option as well, given his current form.
Justin Thomas (+550 outright)
Thomas spent plenty of time atop the FedExCup standings, so you know his game is on point. He ranks first on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (1.716), which should help him immensely at a challenging East Lake course. Thomas opens the event just three strokes behind Johnson, but he ranks 33rd and fourth, respectively, in Round 1 and Round 2 scoring average, so he's well-positioned to gain ground instantly should Johnson or Rahm falter Friday or Saturday.
Tony Finau (+1,800 stroke play)
Finau has virtually no chance of walking out of Georgia with the FedExCup championship: he'll start the tournament at 2 under, eight shots back of Johnson. But if anyone in the lower half of the tournament is well-positioned to make a run at a Top-5 finish, it's Finau. He has four Top-8 results over his previous six tournaments (most of which have been serious tests) and is coming off a final-round 65 at a BMW Championship which severely humbled the field. Finau's game is humming and he's a great live underdog play.
TOUR Championship matchup predictions
Billy Horschel Over Viktor Hovland (-110)
Hovland and Horschel will open the tournament at even-par, and with incredibly long odds to win (Hovland is at +17,500, while Horschel is at +20,000). Horschel has exhibited a slightly better form of late, having finished second at the Wyndham Championship in mid-August, while Hovland has just one Top-20 result since the middle of July.
And with Horschel ranking inside the Top 20 on tour in SG: Overall, we're content with giving him the edge in what should be an entertaining 72-hole battle.
Schauffele Over McIlroy/Reed/Todd/Munoz (+170)
The odds for this five-man match play prop are skewed heavily in favor of Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy, who are co-faves at +170. But there's a decent chance McIlroy either won't tee off or will leave the tournament early as he and wife Erica await the birth of their first child.
Schauffele has been sensational all season (ranked 7th in SG: Overall at 1.531), and with McIlroy either out or distracted by his new arrival, the path to a prop victory is a whole lot clearer.
TOUR Championship prop bet
Hole in One: Yes (+550)
On one hand, expecting a hole-in-one in a field of 30 golfers might seem like a fool's errand. But we have two things working in our favor here: for starters, this field is among the best you'll see at any tournament on the PGA Tour calendar. And with so much at stake, you can expect these guys to be dialed in on every hole.
The odds on this prop are long, for sure, but that only makes it more appealing given how talented the field is.
TOUR Championship betting card
- Dustin Johnson (+175 outright, +550 stroke play)
- Justin Thomas (+550 outright)
- Tony Finau (+1,800 stroke play)
- Billy Horschel Over Viktor Hovland (-110)
- Schauffele Over McIlroy/Reed/Todd/Munoz (+170)
- Hole in One: Yes (+550)
Where can I bet on PGA golf?
With PGA betting growing in popularity, pretty much all online sportsbooks will offer golf odds for the BMW Championship. Check out our top listings page for the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what PGA Tour odds they have available.
