With the U.S. Open just a week away, the PGA Tour's final tune-up opportunity comes north of the border at the RBC Canadian Open odds at St. George's.
The track plays shorter than most, meaning driving won't be as critical, but as per usual, strong iron play and putting will be needed to contend and win.
We break down the field and highlight a favorite, a sleeper, and a longshot worth backing before things get underway on Thursday, June 9.
Memorial Tournament outright picks
- Favorite: Cameron Smith (+1,500)
- Sleeper: Harold Varner III (+3,500)
- Longshot: Mackenzie Hughes (+8,000)
Picks were made on 6/6/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
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RBC Canadian Open outright picks
Among the favorites: Cameron Smith (+1,500)
While there's a ton of reason to like the trio of Tour superstars atop the odds board this week, their odds of 10/1 or better are far from favorable, pushing us to look elsewhere, specifically to Cameron Smith (+1,500 at FanDuel).
Despite inconsistent if not poor play off the tee, the Aussie continues to impress at nearly every turn with a game that is otherwise as strong as anyone on the PGA Tour. Since notching wins at the Sentry TOC and PLAYERS, he's continued to post strong results at the biggest events. Finished T3 at Augusta National and enters the week after back-to-back finishes of T13 at the PGA Championship and Memorial Tournament.
His aforementioned shaky driver ranks just 123rd in strokes gained off the tee and 101st in driving distance but he somehow still ranks 15th from tee to green thanks in large part to an approach game that's bested by only Will Zalatoris. Combine that with a putter that's among the best on Tour and you have a dominant golf game that can travel nearly anywhere (north of the Canadian border).
With that said, Smith could be a particularly good fit at St. George's, as it's a track that demands shorter clubs (including some irons) off the tee with a number of shorter holes. That should theoretically remove some of the volatility in his driver and allow his iron play and putter to shine through even more.
The Aussie is a birdie-making machine, full stop, ranking first on Tour in birdie average (5.05) and first in scoring average (69.25). He's proven time and time again he's among the best five or 10 golfers in the world and this week presents another opportunity to add to what has already been by far the best season of his career.
Sleeper to watch: Harold Varner III (+3,500)
This number that opened as high as +4,200 to start the week has already taken a bit of a dive to +3,500 (Caesars) at the time of writing, but Harold Varner III is still someone worth being on this week.
While he's still in search of his first PGA Tour victory, HV3 has taken the momentum of his Saudi victory back in early February and has parlayed it into some really quality play of late. Over his last seven starts, he's finished T3 (Harbour Town) and T6 (PLAYERS Championship) among five Top 30s.
Two weeks ago at the Charles Schwab, Varner was tied for the lead through 11 holes on Sunday before completely unravelling during a back-nine 45 (final-round 78). That dropped him all the way down to T27.
If you look past that final-round blunder, you're looking at a guy who's proven he can contend with and beat quality fields (see his Saudi win). HV3's statistical profile may not shine like Smith's, but I suspect he'll be eager to put that Sunday stretch behind him with another great week as opposed to letting a few bad holes flip his season upside down.
Longshot worth a look: Mackenzie Hughes (+8,000)
Corey Conners is by far the best and most consistent Canadian golfer on Tour, but it wasn't that long ago when that status belonged to one Mackenzie Hughes.
His form has mostly disappeared in 2022, with some average finishes sandwiched in between a flurry of missed cuts. However, it was around this time last year that the Canadian traded five straight missed weekends for a run of 13 straight made cuts, including T6 and T15 finishes in the two major championships over that span. There are a couple of signs leading us to believe this may repeat itself in 2022.
He finished T9 at Wells Fargo just a few weeks back and actually had a share of the first-round lead at the Memorial last week before fading over the weekend (76-74, T37). If he is starting to put this 2022 slump behind him, what better place to put it all together than in front of the Canadian fans.
I wish this number was a bit longer (as I do with Conners), but at 80/1, we can't go without throwing a Canadian in here.
