RBC Canadian Open Sleeper Picks and Predictions: Rai Ready to Contend in Hamilton

Rory McIlroy headlines the betting favorites in the RBC Canadian Open odds with the PGA Tour heading north of the border to Hamilton Golf and Country Club.

Tommy Fleetwood, Sahith Theegala, Corey Conners, Shane Lowry and Alex Noren round out a second tier of contenders in the golf odds this week, but we’re looking further down the board with our sleepers and long shorts. Here are our golf picks for this week’s RBC Canadian Open.

2024 RBC Canadian Open sleeper picks

• Aaron Rai to win outright (+4,000 at bet365)
• Akshay Bhatia to win outright (+5,000 at FanDuel)
• Matt Wallace to win outright (+9,000 at bet365)

• Aaron Rai Top 40 (-130 at bet365)
• Akshay Bhatia Top 40 (-115 at bet365)
• Matt Wallace Top 40 (+120 at bet365)

Picks were made on May 28, 2024. 

2024 RBC Canadian Open and Hamilton Golf & Country Club key stats

Despite a complete renovation and lengthening of multiple holes, I expect Hamilton Golf & Country Club to play similarly to how it did during the 2019 RBC Canadian Open.

The extensive renovations were more for sustainability with a new irrigation system than altering how the track will play. New tees, bunkers, and greens throughout will have a minor impact, but the layout is largely similar. It will play as a traditional Par 70 at 7,084 yards, with a pair of Par 5s and four Par 3s.

Rory McIlroy ran away with the 2019 edition and finished 22-under, fueled by carding a 61 on Sunday. He put on a tee-to-green clinic and finished fifth in true strokes gained putting. Perhaps even more telling than him winning by seven strokes is that only nine other players in the field finished double-digits under par, and the cut was 2-under following Round 2.

Don’t expect this to turn into a birdie contest, and interestingly, eight of the Top-10 finishers in 2019 also finished Top 10 in strokes gained putting. Distance off the tee also wasn’t a huge contributor at the top of the leaderboard. McIlroy did lead the field, but Danny Willet (17th) and Sungjae Im (24th) were the only other two in the Top 10 who averaged over 300 yards off the tee. Additionally, McIlroy and Willet were the only two Top-10 finishers inside the top 10 in true strokes gained off-the-tee.

The greens here are smaller than average, so I'll be valuing approach metrics, around-the-green play, and scrambling more heavily this week. Finally, the Par 3s are going to be tough, so Par-3 scoring will have an impact. McIlroy played them at -2 for the tournament in 2019.

• Strokes gained approach
• Strokes gained tee-to-green
• Strokes gained around-the-green, scrambling
• Par-3 scoring
• Strokes gained putting

2024 RBC Canadian Open sleeper predictions

Aaron Rai to win outright (+4,000)

The Englishman checks all the boxes this week and his lack of distance off the tee is mitigated at this Par-70 track. Aaron Rai is sixth in true strokes gained tee-to-green and eighth in true strokes gained on approach in this field across his past 26 measured rounds, and he’s also 24th in scrambling and 32nd in Par-3 scoring on Tour this season. I also value him ranking second in driving accuracy.

He's played the weekend in three consecutive events, topping out with the T4 at the Byron Nelson, and has finished inside the Top 40 in all three. 

Shopping for the best price is also beneficial with Rai trading as short as +3,500 at multiple shops. The difference between that number and the +4,000 bet365 odds is a positive expected value of 15%.

Pick: Aaron Rai to win outright (+4,000 at bet365, 0.25 units)
Pick: Aaron Rai Top 40 (-130 at bet365)

Akshay Bhatia to win outright (+5,000)

There’s no hiding the inconsistency in Akshay Bhatia’s results this season. He’s won and added another six Top 20s, but he’s also missed the cut in six of 15 events, including each of the past two weeks. Still, I’d rather take a shot on upside and talent because this isn’t a deep field, and Bhatia has the game and supporting statistics to contend.

He ranks 14th in true strokes gained tee-to-green, 15th in true strokes gained approach, and 28th in true strokes gained putting in this field across his past 47 measured rounds. Additionally, he’s above the Tour average in both scrambling and Par-3 scoring for the year.

The +5,000 FanDuel odds also present a positive expected value of 12% over the available +4,500 DraftKings price.

Pick: Akshay Bhatia to win outright (+5,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Akshay Bhatia Top 40 (-115 at bet365)

Matt Wallace to win outright (+9,000)

Matt Wallace has been flashing on leaderboards for stretches all season. He’s a four-time DP World Tour winner and also took down the Corales Puntacana Championship last year. More importantly, he’s gained true strokes across the board across his past 12 measured rounds with ranks of third around the green and 11th from tee to green in this field.

He’s also better than average in both scrambling and Par 3 scoring and before finishing T43 in the PGA Championship, Wallace posted a T4 at the Byron Nelson and T20 at the Myrtle Beach Classic. The 34-year-old Englishman can contend in this watered-down field and his current form is reminiscent of a number of the veteran Europeans who played well here in 2019.

Finally, there’s also a huge gap in the available odds for Wallace this week. He’s priced as short as +6,600 through BetMGM, with the difference in the numbers attaching a positive expected value of 36% to the +9,000 bet365 odds.

Pick: Matt Wallace to win outright (+9,000 at bet365, 0.25 units)
Pick: Matt Wallace Top 40 (+120 at bet365)

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