It's been a while since one golfer had such a huge edge on the field from a betting perspective – and the guy in question just so happens to be one of the most volatile stars on the planet.
Bryson DeChambeau is the clear favorite for this week's PGA Tour event, the Rocket Mortgage Classic at the Detroit Golf Club, where he happens to be the defending champ. He'll be one of the most popular PGA betting picks, as a solid-if-unspectacular group of players get in their final tune-up ahead of the upcoming British Open.
We preview the field, break down the course and give our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks and predictions.
Detroit Golf Club betting stats that matter
Those tight tree-lined fairways don't scare the top players in the world. The field boasted a Driving Accuracy rate at last year's event that came in well above the PGA Tour average, which isn't surprising when you consider that most fairways run straight for the longer hitters and the rough isn't all that punitive. Green in regulation percentage also came in well above the tour average.
This course suits all styles of player, but you're going to want to get those big hitters on your betting card this week. Golfers who take the bunkers out of play and leave themselves a short approach – even from the rough – are going to score low. Short-iron accuracy should also be a priority this week: the players who leave themselves with the most short birdie putts will thrive.
Rocket Mortgage Classic outright winner bets
Whether he promises to go out and dominate this year as he did in 2020, DeChambeau is expected to be front and center on this week's leaderboard. Oddsmakers have him installed at +750, well ahead of No. 2 betting option Patrick Reed at +1,400. Hideki Matsuyama is the top non-American play this week at +1,800, even with Webb Simpson. Joaquin Niemann (+2,200) is next, with Will Zalatoris (+2,500) rounding out the Top 6.
Who will win the Rocket Mortgage Classic? Here are our best picks:
Hideki Matsuyama (+1,800)
It's slump-busting time for Matsuyama, who has zero Top-20 finishes since his incredible Masters win in April. The circumstances in Detroit are ripe for a Matsuyama victory: The field is on the weaker side by PGA Tour standards, and he won't be hampered by his 91st-ranked driving distance. Matsuyama has finished 13th and 21st at Detroit Golf Club and has gained 1.43 strokes per round. His putter is always an issue, but on a course where he should be able to give himself routinely short birdie chances, we're buying.
Doc Redman (+6,000)
Here's a name we haven't seen in this section for a while. Redman has several things going for him at Detroit Golf Club this week, making him a great live underdog play in a field that lacks the star power of most PGA Tour events. He has a second-place finish on his resume from the Palmetto Championship in mid-June, and his short iron game (15th in approach shots from 50-125 yards) is on point. He also has finishes of second and 21st in his two visits to Detroit Golf Club, which is icing on the cake for us.
Rocket Mortgage Classic matchup predictions
Garrick Higgo Over Rickie Fowler (-110)
For all the reasons we like Matsuyama to prevail this week, we're all-in on Higgo – and this is probably the safest play where he's concerned. Coming off consecutive missed cuts, some might think the bloom is off the rose a bit here – but he did plenty right last time out, hitting nearly 70 percent of greens in regulation while gaining 0.8 shots per round with the putter at the Travelers Championship. His short-iron game has been terrific, and his strong putting sets him up for a potential birdie barrage.
Cameron Tringale Over Emiliano Grillo (-110)
Grillo has been one of the best players in the world at giving himself birdie opportunities, ranking second in GIR success rate at 71.68 percent. But that won't come in nearly as handy at a course where just about everyone is going to be hitting the greens at a higher-than-normal percentage. Tringale ranks fifth in shots gained per round at this course (1.55) and has parlayed that success into finishes of fifth and 30th in two events here. Look for him to win this matchup relatively easily.
Rocket Mortgage Classic prop bets
Top Continental European: Sepp Straka (+320)
This prop is primarily a two-man competition, with Straka and favorite Alex Noren (+240) in a tier by themselves. Why are we taking Straka? The talented Austrian showed terrific form in a T10 result at the Travelers Championship and should benefit by competing against a less impressive field this week. He also has one of the strongest course resumes of any player competing, with finishes of 11th and eighth and just two rounds worse than 68. He has great odds for this prop.
Bryson DeChambeau Top-10 Finish (-120)
The beauty of a bet like this is that it bakes in a little bit of Bryson being Bryson. We all know the guy is prone to an occasional meltdown, as we saw at the U.S. Open earlier this month. He's still one of the top players in golf, and was nearly flawless en route to last year's Rocket Mortgage Classic title. We like to think of this more as a "taking the field over DeChambeau" pick, where you're still getting decent odds on what we consider to be the worst-case scenario for the most talented player in the field.
Rocket Mortgage Classic betting card
- Hideki Matsuyama Outright (+1,800)
- Doc Redman Outright (+6,000)
- Garrick Higgo Over Rickie Fowler (-110)
- Cameron Tringale Over Emiliano Grillo (-110)
- Top Continental European: Sepp Straka (+320)
- Bryson DeChambeau Top-10 Finish (-120)
Picks made 06/30/2021 at 10:40 a.m. ET.
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