Vegas baby! The PGA Tour's next stop is at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, Nevada for the Shriners Children's Open odds, with an improved field that includes Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Tom Kim, and more.
While some are well into their Fall schedule journeys, others will look to get their feet wet with their first start of the season. We break it all down below with a lineup of guys worth backing in Sin City.
Shriners Children's Open picks
- Montgomery (-120) over Hadwin
- Harman (-110) over Davis
- Thomas Detry Top 20 (+250)
- Matthew NeSmith Top 20 (+300)
Picks made on 10/4/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Shriners Children's Open matchup predictions
Taylor Montgomery over Adam Hadwin (-120 at DraftKings)
Taylor Montgomery finally secured his PGA Tour card after finishing inside the Top 25 (seventh) on the Korn Ferry Tour last summer — and he's brought with him some damn good form.
The 27-year-old closed the KFT season with three Top 5s and a Top 10 in his final four starts, results that have quickly translated into a third-place finish and a T9 at the Fortinet and Sanderson Farms Championships, respectively.
He gained more than 4.2 strokes on the greens in those two Tour starts — including a whopping +2.80 at the Fortinet — and while his ball-striking was rather pedestrian in the season-opener, it improved at the Sanderson Farms.
Meanwhile, Adam Hadwin has been really struggling with no finish better than T38 dating back to the start of July (MC-T38-T37-69-T44), and while he does have two Top-6 finishes at TPC Summerlin in the last three years, he doesn't have the form to match. The new kid on the block should take advantage.
Brian Harman over Cameron Davis (-110 at DraftKings)
At just over 7,200 yards, TPC Summerlin is one of the more appropriate tracks to back a short-hitting Brian Harman (159th in driving distance last season) and his track record backs it up with two Top 15s and another Top 20 in his last four starts here at the Shriners.
He rolls his putter particularly well — gaining shots on the field in six of seven tries here — and has the good form to boot, with three Top-8 finishes in his last seven starts going back to the Travelers last season.
Cam Davis showed real flashes at the Presidents Cup but it's potential that — despite improving finishes to end last season — remains largely untapped on the PGA Tour. He missed the cut at the Fortinet and hasn't done better than T27 here in three career tries. Take the journeyman against the youngster.
Shriners Children's Open top finisher predictions
Thomas Detry Top 20 (+250)
Going back to the well as Thomas Detry came through for me with a Top 20 last week at the Sanderson Farms (T9). We're getting the exact same number this week, albeit in a slightly tougher field.
Last week's T9 finish continues the Belgian's run of six Top-15 finishes in his last eight starts between the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, including three straight going back to his T5 at the BMW PGA. Last week also marked another week of strong putting (+1.18 strokes gained), something that's been complimentary to his biggest asset — his driver.
He's making his first start here at the Shriners but the same could be said for the Sanderson Farms and Fortinet. His form is showing up no matter where he tees it up and there's no reason to go away from him this week.
Matthew NeSmith Top 20 (+300)
Matthew NeSmith started his season off by missing the weekend at the Fortinet, but it didn't take long for him to bounce back, going T9 at the Sanderson Farms last weekend with a much-improved if not impressive iron-play performance (+1.57 strokes gained approach).
Either way, this is mostly a play on his strong course history here at TPC Summerlin: three Top 20s in three career starts including a T8 two years ago. He's gained shots with his putter each of those three years and has pieced together strong approach-play weeks as well (+1.61 in 2021, +1.18 in 2020).
Those parts of his game appear to be back on track, making NeSmith to Top 20 very appetizing at this +300 number. One might call it par for the course for him.
