Valero Texas Open Predictions: Corey Conners Breaks Through, Again

With the Masters just around the corner, the Tour heads to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open, presenting a light field the opportunity to get their games in shape in time for Augusta National.

While Valero Texas Open odds have Rory and Spieth slated as favorites, many of the Tour's superstars are taking the week off in preparation for next week, leaving the door open for the not-so-shiny names to contend.

We break down the field and highlight a favorite, a sleeper, and a longshot worth backing before things tee off on Thursday, March 31.

Valero Texas Open outright picks

Among the favorites: Corey Conners (+1,600)

There are only two guys on this week's board above 2019 Valero Texas Open champion Corey Conners — Rory McIlroy and last year's winner, Jordan Spieth.

Rory's +700 odds are way too short to consider backing and I just haven't seen much to suggest a win is coming for Spieth, especially compared to the form he was in a year ago.

That leads us to the Canadian Corey Conners, who could have much higher prospects of a win this week — and at much better odds.

He's made three starts here at TPC San Antonio — T26 in 2018, a two-shot victory in 2019, and T14 in 2021 — and while his form has been oddly hit-or-miss to start 2022, his game is finally rounding into shape for the most important part of the Tour schedule. 

He started the year with a stretch of three missed cuts in five starts but has since gone T11 at Bay Hill, T26 at the roller-coaster PLAYERS, and solo-third at the Dell Technologies Match Play in Austin, winning six of his seven matches.

Putting notwithstanding (33rd), few guys in this field rank out better than Conners at TPC San Antonio. He's played 12 rounds here and ranks inside the Top 5 in total strokes gained as well as strokes gained off-the-tee, tee-to-green, and on approach. He also has the best cumulative score to par alongside Charley Hoffman dating back to 2017 (30-under).

This is a dream fit and while many of the top dogs this week — including Conners — will have their eyes set on next week's Masters, the 30-year-old Canadian returns to TPC San Antonio in really good form, with a ton of great memories, and a solid opportunity to notch his second Tour victory. 

Sleeper to watch: Chris Kirk (+2,800)

Chris Kirk is a name that should have some buzz behind him this week. He's on the board at +2,800.

He's already been bet down below 30/1 after opening the week in the 40/1 range, but despite the drop in value, there's still good reason to have your eyes on him this week.

A missed cut at TPC Sawgrass aside, Kirk has been lingering on a handful of Sunday leaderboards already this season and had entered PLAYERS week on a nice run of T14 in Phoenix, T7 at Honda, and T5 at Bay Hill. 

He's improved his ranking in every major strokes gained category relative to 2021 and some of his 2022 marks might come as a bit of a surprise — 10th from tee to green (38th last year), 16th around the green (24th), and 15th overall (41st).

Combine his solid form with T6 and T8 finishes in two of his last three starts at TPC San Antonio and you get the recipe for a guy who could be knocking on the door come Sunday afternoon. 

He should also have some extra motivation. Kirk doesn't have a spot at Augusta National next week — a win this week would get him one.

Longshot worth a look: Charley Hoffman (+5,000)

I'm not sure if Charley Hoffman at 50/1 falls under "longshot worth a look" status but we can't disregard the guy with probably the best Valero Texas Open resume on Tour — so let's dive in.

Hoffman's resume at TPC San Antonio can't be overstated — 11 made cuts in 11 starts including a victory in 2016, three runner-up finishes (2011, 2019, 2021), a third-place finish, and four other finishes inside the Top 15.

He's been battling injuries to start the calendar year and is stuck in a funk of missed cuts and poor finishes, but you'd be crazy not to consider the TPC San Antonio staple at the 50/1 number. 

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