It’s the week before the Masters which gives us a very eclectic field at the Valero Texas Open. Many of the world's elite will skip this one, while others like Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jordan Spieth will look to gain momentum for Augusta.
For the rest of the field, this is the last chance to get into the season’s first major with a win. Let’s dig into the stats and the Valero Texas Open odds to find the best bets for head-to-head matchups and top finishers.
Valero Texas Open picks
- Hadwin (+105) over Kim
- Kuchar (+105) over Steele
- Theegala (+112) over Palmer
- Palton Kizzire Top 20 (+250)
- Matthew NeSmith Top 20 (+500)
- Anirban Lahiri Top Asian (+800)
Picks made on 3/29/2022 at 11:50 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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TPC San Antonio stats that matter
Wild drivers of the golf ball will have a hard time on this course with native areas, rocks, and other trouble coming into play. However, the actual rough is not very penal. A Tour caddie told us in 2021 “you can miss these fairways by 10 yards, but you can’t miss them by 20 yards or more,” so driving accuracy is important.
Scrambling is another key stat this week with TPC San Antonio ranking seventh on Tour in lowest greens in regulation percentage. It’s a second-shot golf course, with tiered Pete Dye greens that don’t make it easy to get up and down when you miss.
- Driving accuracy and good drives gained.
- Scrambling.
- Strokes gained approach.
- Greens in regulation.
- Par-5 scoring.
Valero Texas Open matchup predictions
Adam Hadwin (+105) over Si Woo Kim
The form is really good right now for Hadwin coming off back-to-back Top-10 finishes and five Top 30s in his last seven events. He’s also gained 3+ shots on approach in four out of his last five to go along with some good numbers around the greens and putting. Hadwin is also hitting a lot more quality drives than Si Woo Kim over the last 24 rounds.
While Si Woo has some good finishes at Valero, we think Hadwin can put himself more consistently in positions to score and avoid bogeys right now.
Matt Kuchar (+105) over Brendan Steele
Kuchar ranks first in total short game and 35th in fairways gained over the last 24 rounds versus this field. He just did some particularly good scrambling at Valspar and now he comes to the Valero where his last two trips were a T12 and a T7 and he’s made every cut for a decade.
Steele also has a pretty good track record here, but not as good as Kuch. The putting and around the greens numbers are also pretty grim for Steele recently. We really don’t understand the juice on Steele at BetMGM.
Sahith Theegala (+112) over Ryan Palmer
This line is ignoring the bad recent form for Palmer. He may have a big course experience advantage over the debutant Theegala, but the form for these two is a different story. Palmer has missed three of the last four cuts (finished 70th at Honda) and is bleeding away strokes on the greens and in the approach department.
On the contrary, Theegala seems to be heating up after his near triumph in Phoenix. We saw there how he can scramble and it looked like he really found something with his ball-striking on the way to a backdoor Top 10 at Valspar. We also like the big advantage in par-5 scoring for Sahith.
Valero Texas Open top finisher predictions
Patton Kizzire Top 20 (+250)
Over the last 24 rounds versus the field, Kizzire ranks sixth in approach and Top 20 in almost every other key strokes-gained stat, including ninth in scrambling. It’s also good to see that Patton is 13th in scoring opportunities gained and second in eagles versus the field. He finished inside the Top 10 at Valero last year and his results so far this season are trending towards contending again.
Matthew NeSmith Top 20 (+500)
NeSmith is also Top 20 in scoring opportunities versus the field and he just about won the Valspar two weeks ago. He gained 9.3 strokes tee-to-green and nearly eight on approach there. He doesn’t hit it far off the tee but the accuracy is what we need this week. NeSmith ranks fifth in good drives gained by Fantasy National and 13th in fairways found over the last 24 rounds. We think he’ll improve on 34th place in his debut last year at Valero.
Anirban Lahiri Top Asian (+800)
Remember when Lahiri threw some tape on his irons and almost won The PLAYERS a few weeks ago? He gained 3.5 shots on approach and 5.7 putting on the Bermuda greens at TPC Sawgrass. Now he’s coming back to a place where he finished fifth last year while losing a stroke on approach.
He was a putting machine that week at TPC San Antonio. Now, what if he puts the whole game together like he did at The PLAYERS? Lahiri could actually be in the mix to win here and get himself into The Masters.
Obviously, he’ll need to contend with Hideki, but he’s coming off an injury, finished 30th here last year, and might be easing his way to Augusta. Si Woo is actually the biggest threat but he too finished outside the Top 20 last year. C.T. Pan has never made the cut at Valero, K.H. Lee is making his debut, Sung Kang is in really bad form, and Kanaya hasn’t looked comfortable on the PGA Tour yet.
