Valspar Championship Picks, Props, & Matchup Best Bets: Value Lies With Russell Knox

The final event of the brutal Florida swing goes down this week in Tampa, Florida for the Valspar Championship from Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course.

The field is fairly solid as of now but beware of the dreaded WD’s incoming after the Monday finish at The PLAYERS. The guys on the PGA TOUR have been kicked around pretty hard the last few weeks, and some will choose to bail on their previous commitment to the Valspar in the next 24 hours.

The Valspar Championship odds board has already seen a handful of notable names withdraw at the time of writing, including Casey, Niemann, Ghim, Rodgers, Munoz, Snedeker, McNealy, and Young.

Valspar Championship picks

• Oosthuizen (-112) over Burns
• Knox (-110) over Bezuidenhout
• Fitzpatrick (-102) over Lowry
• Wesley Bryan Top 40 (+500)
• Alex Noren Top Continentual Euro (+650)
• Russell Knox Top GB & IRE (+850)

Picks made on 3/15/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Copperhead Course stats that matter

The Copperhead course has plenty of bite, especially the three-hole stretch that is the “Snake Pit.” Since 2015, Copperhead ranks as the fourth-most difficult regular stop on the PGA Tour in terms of scoring average.

Narrow fairways, small greens with even smaller landing areas, heavy bunkering, and that brutal Florida wind can really wreak havoc on the field. This is a course where longer hitters have historically clubbed down off the tee in order to approach these tough greens from the fairway. We see most of the tee shots all land in the same spot, and from there…it’s an approach and scrambling contest.

This is not the course to come in “searching for it”. You want guys showing solid ball-striking form and decent numbers putting on Florida TifEagle Bermuda greens.

• Strokes gained approach.
• Bodey avoidance.
• Florida Bermuda putting.
• Strokes gained around the green
• Par-5 scoring.
• Proximity from 175+ yards.

Valspar Championship matchup predictions

Louis Oosthuizen (-112) over Sam Burns

Taking the sweet-swinging perpetual bridesmaid over the defending champ in Sam Burns may seem strange. However, this is why watching golf is important. Sam Burns was lost on Monday at The PLAYERS and searching for his swing. He also mentioned in a press conference prior to Thursday that he had been battling some swing issues that he felt he had worked out with his coach. Well, we’re not convinced.

Louis didn’t have the best final round but he still played great at Sawgrass and he’s got arguably the best record at Copperhead. Louie’s last four attempts at Copperhead include a runner-up (shocker), T8, T7, and T16. I’ll take the coin flip on a course horse arriving in solid form over someone fighting his swing and coming in as the defending champ for the first time in his young career.

Russell Knox (-110) over Christian Bezuidenhout

There are 13 players in the field with more strokes gained at Copperhead over the last five years than Russell Knox. And first-timer, C Bez, isn’t one of them.

Plus, Knox arrives in better form having logged two Top 7s and one MC in seven starts in 2022. Knox is gaining strokes everywhere but on the putting green but plenty of bad putters have had success here. Copperhead is way more about survival, grinding out pars, and taking advantage of the birdie holes when they come. We prefer Knox on a difficult course with the potential for tough weather conditions.

Matt Fitzpatrick (-102) over Shane Lowry

This line may look risky on paper considering how well Lowry’s been playing. However, when you consider that Fitzpatrick was on the very wrong side of the draw at The PLAYERS leading to his missed cut, then things can even out a touch.

The bad draw at TPC was at a 3.5-stroke disadvantage and Fitz missed the cut by just two shots. Both of these guys arrive having shown some tremendous form already this season, and already in Florida. Both men have only played in one edition of the Valspar Championship back in 2018 where Lowry finished top 50 and Fitz missed the cut. Negligible in our opinion. We’ll take our chances on the red-hot Fitzpatrick underdog after a weekend of rest.

Valspar Championship top finisher predictions

Wesley Bryan Top 40 (+500)

Otherwise known as “Wedgley” Bryan, he’s a PGA TOUR winner on the last start of a major medical exemption for this season. It’s complicated to explain, but that means that he needs to finish inside the Top 5 to regain full status or finish in the Top 50 to gain conditional status.

Either way, he’ll be highly motivated to have a great week, and he picked this golf course to be his last attempt for a reason. It should suit his game. He hits a ton of fairways and he’s great on and around the greens. He’s got a T7 and T48 in two attempts at the Valspar. It’s a long shot, but 5/1 for a Top 40 is too juicy to pass up given his extra motivation. PS: We just saw Ryan Brehm win two weeks ago on the PGA TOUR on his last major medical.

Alex Noren Top Continental European Finisher (+650)

The only other real contenders in this category seem to be Hovland (duh), Molinari, and Schwab, but Noren has proven much more than all others in this category of late with the exception of Hovland. Obviously, we’re taking a deep shot that Hovland won’t continue his ball-striking clinic and automatic Top-10 run.

Both Noren and Hovland played well at the Valspar last year in their first attempts (Hovland T3 & Noren T21). However, the +650 value on a guy playing as well as Noren right now is too juicy to avoid. Noren’s form and primarily his ball-striking have been tremendous since January. It’s a long shot that he beats Hovland this week, but we’re not here to talk you into betting golf favorites. 

Russell Knox Top GB & IRE Finisher (+850)

At this point, my love for Knox this week is well-documented, but he’s only got to beat five other guys in this category and two of them are Tommy Fleetwood & Martin Laird! Lowry, Fitz, and Hatton do form a formidable trio for Knox to overcome, but he’s capable. And, at +850, we’re willing to route on the Scotsman.

Knox has way more experience at Copperhead than every other contender in this category, and light years better performance. Given his ball-striking form and proven prowess around Copperhead, we’ll take our chances with the big underdog in this nationality prop on FanDuel.

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