Have you already set your March Madness bracket on fire? Don't worry! We have another elimination tournament worth your time.
The best golfers in the world descend on Austin Country Club in Texas for the 64-man WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event that runs Wednesday through Sunday. The preliminary round consists of a four-man round-robin, with the winner of each of the 16 groups advancing to the weekend. It's single-elimination play from there, with the Round of 16 and quarterfinals set for Saturday and the semifinals, final and third-place match slated for Sunday.
We preview the field, break down the course, and give our free golf picks, predictions, and best bets for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.
Austin Country Club betting stats that matter
You can pretty much ignore the seeding in this event. The three WGC Match Play events played in Austin have been won by players seeded first, 35th, and 48th. And while the top seed has claimed the championship five times in 21 tournaments, we've seen four winners come from the No. 48 ranking or worse, including No. 48 Kevin Kisner at the previous event in 2019.
As for what matters at Austin Country Club, particularly in a match play format, it's all about scoring. SG: Approach, Greens in Regulation, and SG: Putting will all loom large this week since advancing to the next round will come down to being strongest on the most holes. Weigh each of these categories equally when putting together your betting cards for the week.
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play outright winner bets
It's strange to not see 2017 WGC Match Play champ Dustin Johnson back atop the odds leaderboard, particularly as he comes in as the tournament's top seed. But he's only the third favorite at Austin Country Club at +1400, behind co-leaders Bryson DeChambeau (+1200) and Justin Thomas (+1200). Jon Rahm is also at +1400, with Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy in the next tier at +2000.
Who will win the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play? Here's our best guess:
Collin Morikawa (+2,000)
This is Morikawa's first Match Play event (it feels like this dude has been around forever, but he only turned pro in 2019). And we like his chances of making an immediate impact. He's the No. 4 seed in a group with Billy Horschel (32), Max Homa (35), and J.T. Poston (53) and should advance with ease if his overall form holds. He leads the tour in SG: Approach and won the previous World Golf Championships event at The Concession earlier this year. He's a great option to go deep in Texas.
Sergio Garcia (+4,000)
In golf, familiarity counts for plenty – and with Garcia living part-time in Austin, you can be sure he knows the ins and outs of this course better than most. And that's not the only thing we like about him this week. He has reached the Round of 16 at each of the previous two tournaments, including a quarterfinal appearance in 2019. He's coming off a T9 at The Players Championship in mid-March, as well, so his current form is on point. He might be the 39th seed, but we like his chances of winning.
Talor Gooch (+12,500)
This is one of the few tournaments on the PGA Tour where you can comfortably bet on a major underdog and not question your own sanity. Gooch is the No. 59 seed in a group with Webb Simpson (9), Paul Casey (17), and Mackenzie Hughes (48), but showed nerves of steel on the big stage with a T5 at The Players Championship. He ranks inside the top 50 in SG: Approach and SG: Tee to Green and is 33rd in SG: Total. His all-around game suits him well to the course and makes him worth a look at these odds.
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play matchup predictions
Kevin Kisner Over Louis Oosthuizen (+110)
What does the defending champion have to do to get some love here? Kisner has reached the final here in back-to-back years, which is no small feat considering the format and strength of the field. And while Kisner hasn't had the strongest 2020-21 season to date, he still ranks inside the Top 40 in putting and should be able to hold his own against Oosthuizen, who ranks fourth with the putter but has struggled mightily with his irons. As a slight underdog, Kisner is the preferred play here.
Tyrrell Hatton Over Matt Wallace (-163)
You might not like the payout on this one, but it's one of the safer Wednesday matchup plays that doesn't carry odds in the -200 range or lower. Hatton is coming off consecutive Round of 16 appearances in this tournament and is one of the best ball-strikers in the world, ranking eighth in SG: Approach as part of an incredibly well-rounded game. Wallace has been solid with his approach shots, but his off-the-tee game needs a lot of work – and this course punishes poor drives. Hatton should cruise.
Antoine Rozner Over Bryson DeChambeau (+187)
There will be upsets. That's the nature of this event. So why not get your tournament betting card started with what would be one of the biggest shockers of Day 1? DeChambeau has a terrific all-around game but can get into trouble on Pete Dye courses where fortune favors the bold, but also punishes it with well-placed hazards. Rozner is coming off an impressive win at the Qatar Masters in mid-March, and the momentum from that victory might very well lead him to a first-day stunner.
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play betting card
- Collin Morikawa Outright (+2,000)
- Sergio Garcia Outright (+4,000)
- Talor Gooch Outright (+12,500)
- Kevin Kisner Over Louis Oosthuizen (+110)
- Tyrrell Hatton Over Matt Wallace (-163)
- Antoine Rozner Over Bryson DeChambeau (+187)
Where can I bet on the PGA?
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