It's finally time for a change of pace on the PGA Tour schedule. This week, 64 of the world's best are heading to Austin Country Club for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.
Variance and unpredictability are often the names of the game this week with only one No. 1 seed making it through to bracket play last year and the tournament's winner — Billy Horschel — winning with pre-tournament odds of +8,000.
So while the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play odds board may have Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, and Justin Thomas atop the board, this week's winner could very well come with much longer odds.
We combed through the field and made a trio of selections — a favorite, a sleeper, and a longshot — who may be destined for match-play glory this week in Austin.
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WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play outright picks
Among the favorites: Justin Thomas (+1,600)
There's not much that hasn't already been said about the state of Justin Thomas' golf game.
He enters the week fresh off a T3 at Valspar and has been piling up Top-5 and Top-10 finishes over the last six months, finishing T8 or better in six of his last eight starts and eight of his last 12 dating back to the start of last year's FedEx Cup Playoffs.
It's been just over a year since his victory at the 2021 PLAYERS, and while he preached patience after this final round at Copperhead, it's easy to see that he's chomping at the bit to get back into the Winner's Circle — especially with how consistently close he's been in recent months.
He leads the Tour this season in both par-4 scoring and bogey avoidance — both key data-points for match play — while ranking third tee-to-green, fifth on approach, and 15th off-the-tee.
He'll need his putter to show up, especially on the weekend, but from the tee box to the dance floor, there might not be anyone more consistent than Mr. JT right now.
He starts the week with Group 6 round-robin matchups against match-play specialist Kevin Kisner, Marc Leishman, and this year's Farmers Insurance Open winner Luke List. Of the three, Kisner should give Thomas the most pause — holding a 16-5-2 singles record since this event came to Austin, including a 2-and-1 win over Thomas in 2021.
But if and when he gets into the tournament bracket, it really feels like JT could run the table with how deadly his game has been of late.
Sleeper to watch: Paul Casey (+3,300)
Between this event and the Ryder Cup, there are few players in this field with more match-play history (and success) than Paul Casey, so we're rolling with him this week at 33/1.
He's been a mainstay at this event for 15 years with runner-up finishes in 2009 and 2010. He's 8-4-2 at Austin CC since 2017 and 38-26-6 across his entire match-play career.
The unflappable veteran won't be scared of higher-ranked players if he gets into bracket play and has a consistent game with good form to pair with it.
He's just two weeks removed from a solo-third finish at The PLAYERS and aside from a 72nd-place finish at Bay Hill, hasn't finished worse than T31 going all the way back to a missed cut at the Shriners in October.
Within his group of Louis Oosthuizen, Corey Conners, and Alex Noren, the 39-year-old Swede should actually present the toughest test on paper. Noren is in great form, has a really strong match-play history at Austin CC, and neither Louis nor Conners have played up to snuff since the calendar flipped to 2022.
If he can get into the bracket, Casey has the experience needed to grind out matches against some of the world's best and make a deep run.
Longshot worth a look: Keith Mitchell (+8,000)
There are two guys mentioned above that I would have loved to take in this spot — Kevin Kisner and Alex Noren, both on this week's board at +5,000.
Unfortunately, they're both in groups with guys I like more than them — and picked — so we're going a little deeper down the board to Keith Mitchell at +8,000.
Mitchell's lone start at this event came in 2019, where he went 1-2 in round-robin play. He lost 2-and-1 to Kisner, 2-and-1 to Tony Finau, and beat Ian Poulter 1-up.
But he's become a much different player. His game has grown in nearly every area since then and so has his confidence. He's finished T13 or better in seven of his 11 starts going back to his T3 finish at CJ Cup in October. He's cut his OWGR in half (137th before CJ Cup, 71st entering this week) and still has more room to grow.
Because of his lower rank, he's found himself in a handful of a group with Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, and Seamus Power, but his form of late combined with the huge 80/1 number makes this worth inspection.
This event lends itself to a ton of variance and lower-seed victories (48-45-18 in 2021) and Mitchell has the game and form to really put pressure on those above him.
