We’re going to borrow a joke as old as time here, but the only thing longer than the name of this week’s World Golf Championships stop is the list of big-name golfers in the field.
This week’s World Golf Championships-Workday Championship at the Concession (henceforth shortened to the WGC-Workday Championship) features a predictably strong collection of golfers, including every member of the Top-10 in the World Golf Rankings. Here’s the best part: The Concession Golf Club in Bradenton, Fla., has never held a major golf event, providing plenty of mystery and intrigue – not to mention a greater degree of difficulty for bettors.
We preview the field, break down the course and give our golf picks, predictions and best bets for the WGC-Workday Championship.
Concession Golf Course betting stats that matter
The story of The Concession Golf Club deserves its own section; the course drew its name from the 1969 Ryder Cup, when Jack Nicklaus conceded a short putt to Tony Jacklin that resulted in a match draw. Jacklin was so moved by the gesture that he asked Nicklaus to join him in the creation of a course to commemorate the event. In 2006, the course was officially completed.
In terms of what to look for when making your wagers, this course is going to humble some great players this weekend. It measures nearly 7,500 yards with a course rating of 77.6 – and it borrows from a handful of other notable courses, including the 10th hole at Riviera, the “Postage Stamp” par-3 at Royal Troon and the 18th hole at Royal Birkdale.
Your best hope in terms of correlation might be PGA National, another Jack Nicklaus creation. You do NOT want to miss the fairway here, so driving accuracy will be paramount. And SG: Approach and SG: Around the Green will also come into play, with plenty of strategically placed greenside bunkers and lightning-fast putting surfaces awaiting the field.
WGC-Workday Championship outright winner bets
If Dustin Johnson is in the field, it's likely that he'll be the favorite, at least for the time being – and that's true here at The Concession, with DJ a +650 favorite. Jon Rahm is alone in second place at +1,000, with a significant gap between the talented Spaniard and No. 3 options Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy (+1,600).
Who will win the WGC-Workday Championship? Here’s our best guess:
Bryson DeChambeau (+1,800)
We'll take whatever sliver of prior experience we can get – and that's where DeChambeau might have a modest enough edge to top the field. DeChambeau won the men's NCAA Division I individual championship at this course six years ago, pulling out a one-shot victory. It doesn't hurt that DeChambeau is also a really good golfer and would likely be in the hunt here even without the previous exposure. He should be in the hunt this week.
Justin Rose (+6,000)
It's difficult to rule out a longshot play winning this tournament – and as lottery tickets go, Rose might be one of the strongest. Not only is he coming off a second-place result at the Saudi Invitational, but per PGATour.com's Reid Fowler, Rose is a master at Nicklaus-designed courses, particularly when it comes to SG: Tee-to-Green. He also has three career Top-5 showings at PGA National, which only galvanizes his status as an intriguing longshot option this weekend.
WGC-Workday Championship matchup predictions
Tony Finau over Tyrrell Hatton (-110)
Talk about a clash of titans. Finau has rolled to Top-4 finishes in each of his previous three tournaments, including back-to-back runner-up results. Hatton has been no slouch, claiming the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship title in late-January while finishing in a tie for sixth in Saudi Arabia two-and-a-half weeks ago. Hatton runs hot and cold in North America, so we're going with the more consistent option in Finau, who is playing some of the best golf of his career right now.
Will Zalatoris over Sergio Garcia (-110)
It might be easy to look at this prop play and think that we're simply rolling with the hot trend over the grizzled veteran. But the simple fact is that Zalatoris has been playing the superior golf for a while now, having racked up four Top-10 results and seven Top-25 finishes in 10 events (including a T15 at last week's Genesis Invitational). Garcia, on the other hand, has just one Top-10 performance on the season and missed the cut last week. We'll ride the hot hand here.
WGC-Workday Championship prop bets
Dustin Johnson Top-5 result (+137)
The DJ Top-5 bet always feels like great value – and we're going back to the well again this week, even though Johnson came up just short en route to a T8 result last week. Johnson ranks first in SG: Approach and second in SG: Tee-to-Green on the season and will give himself enough birdie opportunities on The Concession's tricky, undulating greens to remain in contention throughout. The outright payoff isn't quite tempting enough here, but getting +137 on a Top-5 finish is just fine by us.
Webb Simpson Top-20 result (-110)
With fields as stacked as this one, you're sure to see some notable players wind up overlooked. While we don't necessarily think that will happen with Simpson, the fact is that these odds seem a little off for a guy who has finished in the Top-20 in six of the eight events he has played this year. Simpson has a fifth place showing at PGA National and ranks inside the Top-20 in SG: Total for the season. At even odds (minus juice) to finish in the Top-20, this feels like one of the safer result plays of the weekend.
WGC-Workday Championship betting card
- Bryson DeChambeau outright (+1,800)
- Justin Rose outright (+6,000)
- Tyrrell Hatton over Tony Finau (-110)
- Will Zalatoris over Sergio Garcia (-110)
- Dustin Johnson Top-5 result (+137)
- Webb Simpson Top-20 result (-110)
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