Austria has been one of the surprises of Euro 2024, winning a group with France and the Netherlands at odds of over +600. Ralf Rangnick’s side plays an entertaining, aggressive style and they’ll hope to advance for a possible rematch with the Dutch.
Turkey reached the knockouts by surviving what’s been called the Battle of Hamburg, with 20 cards shown in what was a complete mess of a match vs. Czechia. The fallout means they lost two starters to suspension, and now must try to advance without their captain.
Find out why that could be a critical blow in our Austria vs Turkey prediction and Euro 2024 picks for Tuesday, July 2.
Austria vs Turkey picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Austria moneyline (-102 at Betano)
My analysis
I would be very interested to see how this matchup would go were Turkey to have their full allotment of players available. They’re a fun team to watch, with an attack that can blitz teams without fear and a style that lends itself to entertainment rather than retention of the ball. That’s why their non-penalty xG was the third-highest in the group stage.
Unfortunately for the Turks, their match with the Czech Republic was a spectacle of epic proportions as the referee lost total control of the match and seemed ready to hand out cards to anybody in his line of sight.
One of those cards was shown to captain Hakan Calhanoglu, the heart of their team and the key man in their midfield. And without him, it’s hard to see this young Turkish side being able to withstand the Austrian onslaught.
Ralf Rangnick has silenced a lot of people who judged him off his stint at Manchester United, and he’s shown what he can do with a squad built to play his style. Austria has won 15 of their 25 matches since he took the helm and looked terrific in the group stage. That includes a 6-1 victory over Turkey when the two teams met in a friendly back in March.
Their 4-2-2-2 setup is exciting and relentless in its pressure, with only Germany’s defense averaging fewer passes per defensive action in this tournament. It’s a key reason they defeated the Dutch to top a group that included the Netherlands and France.
Looking back at the friendly a few months ago, Austria opened the scoring two minutes into the match and never looked back. Calhanoglu scored Turkey’s only goal from the penalty spot to tie the match, before Austria got three straight goals from Michael Gregoritsch to blow things open.
Turkey’s style of play is an aggressive one, but they often leave themselves open. Their 4.8 xGA was the fifth-highest of the group stage, just behind Austria. And if Calhanoglu were available I’d expect a very tight affair with lots of chances for both sides.
But he’s not, and I think that will be too much for Turkey to overcome. They had the second-youngest average age of starters in the group matches, and the loss of Calhanoglu’s leadership, link-up play, and set piece threat is something that can’t be overstated.
Marcel Sabitzer is in fine form and Austria have already defeated one of the favorites in this competition behind his winning goal. Turkey spent an entire half defending for their lives against the Czechs, and I expect fatigue to be an issue for them as well. Back Rangnick’s men to advance in regulation.
Austria vs Turkey same-game parlay (SGP)
Austria moneyline
Over 2.5
Turkey Under 3.5 shots on goal
Turkey took the fourth-most shots during the group stage with 51, including 16 on target. But 13 of those came against an all-out Georgian side and a Czech team that played a man down for much of the match.
Austria also allowed only eight shots on target, among the five best sides in the tournament. That’s despite conceding 40 shots in total. They held France and the Netherlands to three or fewer shots on target in their two meetings. I’ll back them to hold Turkey to that same mark.
That said, I’m not sure Austria will keep a clean sheet here, which means we’re going to see goals. I’m projecting a 2-1 win for Austria, with both sides being aggressive and forcing high turnovers so far this tournament.
Turkey conceded three goals to Portugal, while Austria scored three against the Dutch. The potential for goals with these two sides, given their styles and how they match up, lends itself to the Over.
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Austria vs Turkey odds
| Austria | Turkey | |
|---|---|---|
| +102 | Moneyline | +345 |
| Over 2.5 (-108) | Total | Under 2.5 (-114) |
| +230 | Draw | +230 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 7-1.
Austria vs Turkey game info
| Location: | Leipzig Stadium, Leipzig, Germany |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-2-2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Weather: | 65F, 14 mph winds, 20% PoP, if roof is open. |
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