Two of the most recognizable names in Spanish soccer will reacquaint themselves on Sunday as Barcelona welcome Atletico Madrid to their temporary home. Our La Liga odds have Barcelona favored to win their fourth straight meeting between the sides.
Barcelona had a strong start to the season, but they’ve tasted defeat in two of their last six matches in all competitions. That includes a crucial loss to Real Madrid, their lone league defeat this season. They come into this match with a backup keeper between the sticks, and he'll need his back four to defend better than they did against Porto last time out.
Atletico Madrid is level on points with Barcelona despite having played two fewer matches, and they sit just seven points off Girona and Real Madrid with those two fixtures in hand. Keeping pace with the league leaders is important, and they’ll look to Antoine Griezmann and Alvaro Morata to lead an attack that leads the league in goals per match.
Our Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid free betting picks for Sunday, December 3 looks not just at the 22 players on the pitch, but also at the man in the middle who will shape how this match plays out.
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid best odds
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid picks and predictions
For those unfamiliar with how booking points work in sports betting, it’s a way to account for the severity of the cards handed out by a referee in a match. Unlike betting on the number of cards, which sees a yellow card count just as much as a straight red, it allows you to cash in when harsher punishments are given.
It’s also a great way to cash in on what should be a very contentious match on Saturday, being officiated by a referee with a history of being quite liberal with his bookings. And that’s why we’re banking on over 65.5 booking points to be registered in this derby clash.
They say the sign of a great referee is if nobody knows your name. Well, many fans know Jose Sanchez’s name, and he’s no stranger to controversy.
Last season, he had to hide from Barcelona president Joan Laporta after their 2-1 El Clasico defeat to Real Madrid. Sanchez denied a Barcelona goal after review and awarded a controversial penalty to Real Madrid.
It’s not the first time he’s felt the ire of the Catalan side and he was actually demoted by La Liga for how he handled a Barcelona match a few seasons ago.
So, you’ll understand the reaction of many Barcelona fans when they discovered he’d be in charge of their match this weekend with Atletico Madrid — for the second straight meeting. That’s right, the same referee was on the whistle when these two sides last met back in April.
It was a pretty uneventful match, with Barcelona winning 1-0. Well, uneventful unless you consider 12 bookings to be eventful.
You read that right. This man handed out 12 yellow cards. He gave five in a row to Atletico Madrid players between the 80th and 86th minutes. He handed out three more in stoppage time — one of which was given to someone not even on the pitch.
Now, that’s not all on him. This is a rivalry that breeds contempt. Diego Simeone’s side loves to employ the “dark arts”, using clinical fouls and time wasting to see out results. but they also can lose their heads at times when behind.
The last three fixtures between these sides have all featured at least six cards, with the last two both reaching 100 or more booking points. Their first meeting last year saw stoppage time red cards shown to each side as they both finished with 10 men.
La Liga has seen more cards handed out than any other league in Europe, and last season they had just four fewer red cards shown than the Premier League, Bundesliga, and Serie A combined. It’s due to an emphasis on limiting professional fouls and allowing a more free-flowing style of play.
Sanchez has been the man in the middle for seven La Liga fixtures this season, two of which were blowouts by Real Madrid and Barcelona, respectively. Those other five matches, the competitive ones? He topped 70 booking points in three of them. And he’s done so in six of his last 10 in the league overall.
The price for Over 65.5 booking points is the same as it is for Over 6.5 cards, so take the booking points and capitalize on a possible red card in yet another contentious match.
My best bet: Over 65.5 booking points (+112 at TonyBet)
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Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid same-game parlay
Over 6.5 cards
Cesar Azpilicueta Over 1.5 fouls
Atletico Madrid double chance
Not every book offers booking points, so we’re adjusting to Over 6.5 cards for our same-game parlay at FanDuel, but it’s likely to hit as well, and the higher odds for the play will boost our parlay up to +751.
In addition, we’re going to bet on Cesar Azpilicueta to have at least two fouls. He’s an aging defender who can struggle with pace at times, and it’s led to him having multiple fouls in three of his last four matches.
I’m also betting on Atletico Madrid to get a result. They’ve gone 17 away trips to Barcelona without a win, but Camp Nou is currently under renovation, meaning Barcelona are playing at the much smaller Estadi Olimpic.
Not having that intimidating atmosphere is a huge boost for Atletico, who are playing extremely well and have the reigning La Liga Player of the Month in Griezmann. They may not get that elusive win, but I like them to at least get a draw against a Barcelona side missing key players.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid side and Over/Under analysis
As we just discussed, I like Atletico to find at least a point here, but the market is fully behind Barcelona taking all three. The 3-way moneyline has moved around during the week, coming down closer to even money, but it’s since pushed back out to around -120 for a Barcelona victory.
Atletico Madrid can be had for as high as +280, with the draw paying out up to +260, but the double chance might be the way to go, with -125 odds on offer at FanDuel. That said, they’ve not won an away visit to Barcelona since 2006 and they’ve won just once in their last 24 trips.
Barcelona will be without goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen, while Gavi is also set to miss the fixture. Fullback Joao Cancelo is questionable.
Barcelona will be boosted by having Joao Felix available, despite him being on loan from Atletico Madrid. He’ll line up alongside Robert Lewandowski, who has seven goals in 10 league starts. Across from them will be Griezmann and Morata, who have combined to bag 16 goals through their first 13 matches.
Those two attacking combos are helping push the Over as a favorite, with a price of -130 to -140 on offer. The Under is available at plus money, and for me, it offers value.
Why? Because of our best bet. Atletico is going to want to muck up this match, and tensions flare anytime these sides do battle. Neither side will be shy about hacking someone down to prevent a dangerous attack, and that provides a higher probability of a lower score.
Five of the last six and 10 of the last 12 meetings in league play have gone Under 2.5 goals, and both meetings last season were 1-0 wins by Barcelona.
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Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid game info
| Location: | Estadio Olimpico, Barcelona, Spain |
| Date: | Sunday, December 3, 2023 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Network |
| Weather: | Temp: 49 F, Wind: 10 mph, POP: 0%, Humidity: 73% |
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid key injuries
Barcelona: Marc-Andre ter Stegen GK (Out), Joao Cancelo D (Doubtful), Gavi M (Out).
Atletico Madrid: Reinildo D (Questionable), Memphis Depay F (Questionable), Thomas Lemar M (Out).
