Barcelona vs Napoli Predictions and Picks: Italians Look Stronger in Second Leg

Barcelona are favored but books aren't super confident in that line relative to expectation. As a result, we're looking at alternate angles while asking why the home side is being perceived tepidly against Napoli.

Jason Ence - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Jason Ence • Betting Analyst
Mar 12, 2024 • 09:09 ET • 4 min read
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Napoli Champions League Soccer
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

FC Barcelona hopes home-field advantage will lead them to victory today when they host Napoli for the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 clash. Our soccer betting odds have the Catalans favored to win within regulation and advance. 

The Spanish giants come into the match on a solid run of form, having kept three consecutive clean sheets and going eight matches without defeat. But Xavi is dealing with a real injury crisis, giving him some serious concerns for his midfield as his side looks to reach the quarter-finals for the first time in four years.

Napoli are on their third manager of the season, but Francesco Calzona’s first match in charge saw him secure a 1-1 draw at home in the first leg. His side is unbeaten in his five fixtures at the helm, and the attacking duo of Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratshkelia are regaining the form that terrorized defenses a season ago.

Our FC Barcelona vs Napoli Champions League picks and predictions for Tuesday, March 12 look over the betting markets and explain why there is value to be had in going against the public. 

Barcelona vs Napoli best odds

Barcelona vs Napoli picks and predictions

There’s a reason Barcelona are only getting odds of around -120 to win in regulation, and it starts with their midfield. Frenkie de Jong came off inside a half-hour two matches ago against Athletic Bilbao, and Barcelona have scored just one goal in the 150+ minutes since. 

If you go back and watch the first leg between these clubs, you’ll notice a common theme with nearly every chance Barcelona had on the night — they were either created by de Jong’s superb vision and pinpoint long passes, or by Pedri making brilliant penetrating passes in the final third. 

In fact, it was a wonderful ball from Pedri to find Robert Lewandowski in the area for their lone goal of the night. And much like de Jong, Pedri will be forced to watch this match from the stands — and that’s one of the big reasons I’m backing Napoli to get a result in regulation.

It’s been a disappointing season for the reigning Serie A champions, as Napoli made a managerial change just a few days before the first leg. Despite having just one training session before the match, Napoli looked solid and caused problems throughout the night with their pace on the counter-attack. That pace also allowed them to cause multiple turnovers, either from pressuring Barcelona on the ball or intercepting passes.

One of those led to their goal, as Victor Osimhen used his strength to take a perfect first touch and turn on goal to level the proceedings at 1-1. It was the striker’s first match back after being away at AFCON, and he still looked solid.

Since that night, Napoli are in solid form, and their attack has improved mightily. That includes their away form, as they drew at Cagliari before handing Sassuolo a 6-1 thrashing as Osimhen scored three straight goals in 16 minutes.

But picking Napoli to either win or draw isn’t just about who is missing for Barcelona. It’s also about how it changes their ability to handle Napoli’s pace. Both de Jong and Andreas Christensen saw their names taken after pulling down blue-clad attackers who raced past them. But while de Jong has the pace to typically handle that, Christensen doesn’t. 

Whether it’s Raphinha playing in midfield — as he did at the weekend — or Fermin Lopez, it’s a weak spot when Napoli can run at them. Raphinha is a winger and Lopez’s metrics per 90 show he’s very poor at winning the ball back and preventing players from racing past him.  

TonyBet has the double chance priced at -109 and that’s value from where I’m sitting. Napoli’s pace will cause real problems on the counter-attack, and Barcelona’s got all the pressure on them. They also don’t have the Camp Nou to bolster their performance, with Villarreal coming in just weeks ago and beating them 5-3 in their temporary home.

I’m all in on the Italian side having the weapons up top to get goals, and Barcelona’s just not the same without their two creative threats. Take Napoli to at the very least force extra time, with the possibility of pulling off the upset. 

My best bet: Draw or Napoli double chance - Yes (-109 at TonyBet)

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Barcelona vs Napoli same-game parlay

Napoli or draw double chance

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to score or assist

Alex Meret Over 3.5 saves

If Napoli are to get a result, then Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will almost certainly be a key reason why. He’s found new life under Calzona, scoring in each of his last three outings. He’s got four goals and an assist in that span after scoring just twice and failing to register an assist in his previous 17 appearances. He will be more of a threat than he was in the first leg.

At the other end, I expect Alex Meret will find himself having to answer the call. Napoli’s last four Champions League matches have seen him face a total of 26 shots on target, and he’s come up with five saves in each of those matches. I expect he will have to make at least four here, as Barcelona are fourth in the competition with 5.14 shots on goal per 90 minutes. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Barcelona vs Napoli side and Over/Under analysis

The 3-way moneyline has Barcelona priced between -115 and -120 across the board. This is out of the norm for them, especially as the home side in a Champions League knockout leg. Meanwhile, Napoli are priced as high as +330, with the draw offering +285.

Barcelona were priced as low as -160 after the first leg, but the injuries to their midfield shifted things in Napoli’s favor. The visitors were once priced as high as +450. 

The public is banking on goals, although both sides of the typical 2.5 goal line are still within reason. The Over can be had for -138, which is still a bit juicy but not to the extreme of some recent matches. The Under is providing plus-money odds across the board. 

There is some value in the Under as a result. Barcelona have scored just six goals over their last four matches, and four of those came against Getafe a couple of weeks ago when they still had Pedri and de Jong. The other three matches, including the first leg of this tie, saw a total of three goals scored.

Napoli’s five matches under new management have seen 1-1 draws played out on three occasions. The other two matches went Over, including the 6-1 win vs. lowly Sassuolo. 

Given Barcelona's numerous absences, including Gavi and Ferran Torres, they’ll be lacking firepower off the bench. That could help keep the total low here. 

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Barcelona vs Napoli game info

Location: Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, Barcelona, Spain
Date: Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
TV: Fubo Sports
Weather: 53F, 6-8 mph wind, 0% POP, 72% humidity

Barcelona vs Napoli key injuries

Barcelona: Raphinha F (Probable), Frenkie de Jong M (Out), Pedri M (Out), Gavi M (Out), Ferran Torres F (Out), Alejandro Balde D (Out). 
Napoli: Jens Cajuste M (Out), Cyril Ngonge F (Doubtful), Piotr Zielinski M (Out).

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Jason Ence - Covers
Betting Analyst

Jason has been hooked on soccer since watching Real Madrid and Manchester United in the 2003 Champions League, and has been betting on the sport for nearly 15 years. He has given soccer gambling and fantasy advice for nearly a decade, writing for sites including Rotowire, SB Nation, and The TwinSpires Edge.

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