Two of the world’s biggest clubs will battle on Saturday in the Spanish Copa del Rey Final, as Barcelona and Real Madrid stage the 260th edition of El Clasico from Estadio de La Cartuja in Seville.
Barcelona have a chance to win a quintuple this season, and lifting Spain’s domestic cup could be the first of three that they claim over the next five weeks. Their opponents would love to salvage a disappointing season by claiming the silverware, sending Carlo Ancelotti out in style.
My Barcelona vs. Real Madrid predictions and free betting picks for the Copa del Rey Final on Saturday, April 26 break down why there is unlikely to be a celebratory farewell for one of the sport’s all-time greatest managers.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid picks and predictions
My best bet: Barcelona moneyline (+120 at DraftKings)
My analysis
It’s been 11 years since we last had an El Clasico in the Copa del Rey final, a 2-1 win for Real Madrid that came via Gareth Bale’s electrifying solo effort late in the match. It remains one of the most iconic goals of the century, and came at a time when the club was accustomed to lifting multiple pieces of silverware each season — as they did shortly after winning the 2014 Champions League final.
Should Los Blancos fail to lift the trophy on Saturday, it would mean falling from that lofty perch and going trophyless for the second time in five seasons. A defeat would also bring an unceremonious end to the reign of Carlo Ancelotti, who was at the helm during that 2013-14 campaign and will likely see his time with the club come to a conclusion this weekend regardless of the outcome.
Unfortunately, there is to be no storybook ending for King Carlo and Madrid. While Barcelona will be without star striker Robert Lewandowski for the final, they still have plenty of firepower in attack. They also have the more dominant midfield, and a much more reliable defense. More importantly, they’ve had Real Madrid’s number this season.
It began with Barcelona’s 4-0 dismantling of Real Madrid at Santiago Bernabeu in October, breaking open a scoreless draw as Lewandowski scored two goals in three minutes just before the one-hour mark. Barcelona posted more shots, had higher possession, and overall looked much more composed.
But it was Barcelona’s trouncing in the Supercoppa final that really showed the gap between the two sides. Hansii Flick’s high press overwhelmed Real Madrid, and they repeatedly turned the ball over in dangerous areas. After an early goal from Kylian Mbappe, the Blaugrana scored four unanswered goals in the first half and added a fifth three minutes after halftime.
Both sides have shown defensive frailties at times this season. But while Barcelona’s have come from being caught a bit too high and carefree while throwing bodies forward, Real Madrid’s issues have often come from poor individual defending and having players in unpreferred positions.
In fact, they narrowly defeated Getafe on Wednesday night as these issues were routinely exposed. Getafe posted 2.36 xG and out-shot Madrid 20-14, but it was only the heroics of Thibaut Courtois and his six saves that kept them at bay. Making matters worse, both David Alaba and Eduardo Camavinga came off with injury — with the latter tearing his adductor tendon.
Even without Lewandowski, Flick has multiple players who can operate in a False 9 position with Dani Olmo and Ferran Torres both playing quite well. This may actually make them tougher for Real Madrid to defend, as they lose the focal point of Lewandowski and must deal with the likes of Lamine Yamal and Raphinha making diagonal runs.
For Madrid, injuries are a major problem. Kylian Mbappe is eligible after suspension, but his ankle injury against Arsenal could be a hindrance. The absence of Daniel Carvajal, Ferland Mendy, and Eder Militao in defense are compounded by the loss of Alaba and Camavinga, both of whom Ancelotti has confirmed are likely to miss the final.
Barcelona are the better side, and are simply in much better form. They’ve looked dominant in the two previous meetings, and they’re too good a value to pass up with odds of +120 to win in regulation. As the market reacts to the additional absences of Alaba and Camavinga, I’ll be surprised if we don’t see this get closer to even money by Saturday afternoon.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid same-game parlay (SGP)
Barcelona moneyline
Raphinha to score or assist
Over 3.5
Raphinha was rested mid-week in Barcelona’s 1-0 win over Mallorca, and should be primed to go a full 90 minutes in the final. One of the front-runners for this year’s Ballon d’Or, he’s come up huge in big matches this season.
He was involved in all three goals during their comeback last weekend against Celta Vigo, and was involved in three of their four tallies against Dortmund in the Champions League quarterfinal win. He both scored and assisted in each of the previous two meetings this season, and will be involved yet again.
When you look at the weapons in attack on both sides and the space each defense tends to concede behind their lines at times, it’s no wonder the first two meetings have both seen at least four goals scored. That trend will continue here. Both of these attacks like to throw numbers forward, and have players who can score spectacular individual goals.
In addition, referee Ricardo de Burgos should allow this match to be free-flowing. He’s handed out just 3.56 yellow cards per match in La Liga this season, and his 22.8 fouls per match are the second-fewest among all Spanish officials.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid odds
Barcelona vs Real Madrid live odds
 Barcelona |
 Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| +120 | Moneyline | +205 |
| +285 | Draw | +285 |
| Over 3.5 (+125) | Total | Under 3.5 (-160) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid opening odds
- Moneyline: Barcelona +120 | Real Madrid +205
- Draw: +285
- Over/Under: Over 3.5 | Under 3.5
Barcelona vs Real Madrid side and Over/Under analysis
- Barcelona are +120 on the 3-way money line, with Real Madrid at +205 to win in regulation. The draw can be had for as high as +285.
- Barcelona are heavily favored to lift the trophy, and have won 22 of their last 27 matches in all competitions with just one defeat. Real Madrid have won just three of their last seven, with three defeats in that span.
- The total for this match is an elevated 3.5 goals. The Over can be gotten at +125, with the Under juiced to at least -160.
- Real Madrid’s last six matches have seen three or fewer goals, while 16 of Barcelona’s last 27 have gone Over the 3.5 total. There have also been 4+ goals scored in four of the last five meetings between these sides.
How to watch Barcelona vs Real Madrid
| Location | Estadio de La Cartuja, Sevilla, ESP |
| Date | Saturday, 4-26-2025 |
| Time | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Weather | 73F, 0% PoP, winds 6-10 mph. |
Barcelona vs Real Madrid key injuries
Barcelona: Robert Lewandowski F (Out), Andre ter Stegen GK (Out), Alejandro Balde D (Out), Marc Bernal M (Out), Marc Casado M (Out).
Real Madrid: Eder Militao D (Out), Daniel Carvajal D (Out), Ferland Mendy D (Questionable), Kylian Mbappe F (Questionable), David Alaba D (Out), Eduardo Camavinga M (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
