The Premier League returns with a headlining match between Bournemouth and Arsenal.
The Gunners are just one point from the top of the table, while the hosts have lost three of their last four. Read my Bournemouth vs. Arsenal predictions and free betting picks below to see if they'll get back on track in this match.
EPL predictions for Bournemouth vs Arsenal
My best bet:
Halftime/Fulltime — Draw/Arsenal (+330 at TonyBet)
My analysis
The Gunners come into this in strong form; they've won back-to-back games and are crucially one of the Premier League's two remaining unbeaten teams.
They’ve averaged just over 2.0 goals scored per game and have given up just under 1.0 per game. In theory, this should be an easy game against a Bournemouth team entering into the weekend 10 spots and nine points behind them, but it’s not that simple.
Bournemouth have lost three of their past four domestic matches and are just five points clear of the relegation spots, but they’ve performed well at times and have been very unlucky. Two of those three recent defeats came against Chelsea and Liverpool, both teams with title aspirations.
If you look at the xG (expected goals), you can see Bournemouth have scored just eight times, some way less than the 13.8 that was expected; there’s only one team underperforming against xG to the same extent.
Those goals are crucial, and their expected point total sits at 12.27, over four points more than they currently have, and a total that would have them sixth in expected points.
Arsenal is a better team in every aspect of play. Still, we need to consider that they’re without Martin Odegaard, their chief creator in the middle, and their front three of Gabriel Martinelli, Kau Havertz, and Bukayo Saka are all at risk of not playing due to lingering injuries. You’d expect Mikel Arteta’s team to win even without them, but it’s not going to be easy.
It's no secret Bournemouth have been incredibly strong in the first half of games at the Vitality this season. They’ve been winning in two of three games and level in the other, scoring four times and yet to give up a first-half goal. In fact, there are only two teams with better first-half home records in the Premier League, and they’ve both played once more than Bournemouth.
Expect Andoni Iraola’s team to keep things tight at the back in the first half and to foil Arsenal before eventually succumbing to the Gunners' quality. Still, there’s a good chance it takes until the second half to do so.
Bournemouth vs Arsenal same-game parlay (SGP)
Halftime/Fulltime — Draw/Arsenal
Under 2.5
Lewis Cook to be carded
We’re going to back the Under 2.5. Despite Arsenal’s attacking quality, they’ve hit the Under in 57.1% of Premier League games this season and just one of their three games on the road. With the potential for some of their stars to miss this game, the chances of that just increase. Likewise, Bournemouth have had only one of their three home games hit the three-goal mark so far. They keep things tight at home.
We’ll wrap this up by backing Bourenmouth’s Lewis Cook to get booked. The 27-year-old has started every league game so far and works industriously in the heart of midfield. He’s been booked three times in those games, and leads the league with 18 fouls committed. Against a talented Arsenal team, he'll likely give up one or two fouls with the very real potential for a booking.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bournemouth vs Arsenal odds
Bournemouth vs Arsenal live odds
Bournemouth vs Arsenal opening odds
- Moneyline: Bournemouth +400 | Arsenal -149
- Draw: +290
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
Bournemouth vs Arsenal side and Over/Under analysis
- Arsenal have yet to lose a Premier League game this season and have won their past two matches.
- Bournemouth have lost three of their past four Premier League games and each of the last five meetings with Arsenal.
- Arsenal have scored 2+ goals in 20 of their past 25 Premier League games dating back to last season.
- The Over 2.5 has landed in just three of seven combined EPL matches for these teams.
Bournemouth vs Arsenal game info
| Location: | Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, England |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-19-2024 |
| Time: | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| Weather: | Partly cloudy. |
 recent EPL form |
L-W-L-L-W |
 recent EPL form |
W-W-D-W-D |
Bournemouth vs Arsenal key injuries
Bournemouth: Tyler Adams CM (Questionable).
Arsenal: Martin Odegaard CAM (Out), Oleksandr Zinchenko LB (Out), Kieran Tierney LB (Out), Jurrien Timber DEF (Questionable), Thomas Partey CM (Questionable), Gabriel Martinelli FWR (Questionable), Kai Havertz FWR (Questionable), Bukayo Saka FWR (Questionable), Ben White DEF (Questionable).
Not intended for use in MA.
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