It’s been a long summer but the Premier League is finally back this Sunday and the action kicks off with Burnley and Manchester City squaring off. It’ll be a fascinating encounter under the floodlights with last season’s Championship winners facing the treble winners in Man City.
It’s going to be a great game so don’t miss our Burnley vs. Manchester City picks and predictions.
Burnley vs Manchester City best odds
Burnley vs Manchester City picks and predictions
In many ways, this is the perfect game to get this new Premier League season underway. Burnley’s Turf Moor will be electric and the club is on an upward trajectory.
Last season, the Clarets won the Championship, picking up over 100 points and scoring 87 goals while losing just three games. The feel-good factor is back and this team will relish the chance to face Man City on opening day.
Meanwhile, City romped to the Premier League last year while also picking up an FA Cup and the Champions League trophy that long eluded them. City are favorites to win the Premier League again this season, and unsurprisingly, are heavy chalk for Friday's opener. However, at -315, we won’t be backing them to win on the moneyline, and will instead need to be more creative.
As much as I’m excited to see this Burnley team in the Premier League, the reality is that City are stronger in every aspect of the pitch and should win it. After all, this is a team who won 28 of 38 Premier League matches last season and won two of the three cup competitions they entered. Even with the likes of Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez leaving, they’re still going to be far too good.
While the bookmakers are expecting a high-scoring game, that doesn’t make sense to me. After last season’s exploits, they might be marginally less motivated to start off with their foot fully on the gas.
No team conceded fewer goals than Burnley last year, and they’ll look to make Turf Moor a fortress this season. Let’s back Man City to come through with all three points in a low-scoring affair.
My best bet: Manchester City to win and Under 2.5 goals (+275 at bet365)
Burnley vs Manchester City same-game parlay
Manchester City to win
Under 2.5 goals
Josh Brownhill to get booked
This Same Game Parlay for Burnley vs Man City only has three legs, but at +1100, I think it offers a really juicy bet to start the season.
Man City are the best team in Europe and arguably the greatest team in Premier League history. It’s hard to see anything but a win for Pep’s men.
We're also doubling down on backing Under 2.5 goals as a part of our SGP. Despite Man City having an incredible attack and scoring 94 goals last season, it’s notable that they were far better at home than on the road. In their own stadium, an impressive 84.2% of their matches saw Over 2.5 goals, whereas on the road that figure dropped to 47.4%.
The final leg is for Josh Brownhill to get booked. If the start of this season’s Championship is anything to go by, we’ll see more cards this year. There was an average of five per game in the Championship, up from four per game last season due to the new refereeing rules.
Brownhill picked up nine yellows in 41 games last season and in 10 of 32 Premier League games the season before. He'll be in for a tough midfield tussle against City on Friday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Burnley vs Manchester City spread and Over/Under analysis
I’m expecting a slow start from Man City, and although I’m sure they’ll win, I’d say the draw at +500 is arguably better value than taking them at -315.
As for the total, you're looking at -162 on Over 2.5 goals and +140 if you want to side with the Under. Although this is a free-scoring Man City team against a newly promoted club, expect a slow start from City against a defensive Burnley squad.
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Burnley vs Manchester City game info
| Location: | Turf Moor, Burnley, England |
| Date: | Friday, August 11, 2023 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA Network |
| Weather: | 70 degrees with a high chance of rain throughout. |
Burnley vs Manchester City key injuries
Burnley: Michael Obafemi S (Out).
Manchester City: Nathan Ake D (Out)
Burnley vs Manchester City recent form
| Teams | Last five matches |
|---|---|
 Burnley |
N/A |
 Manchester City |
N/A |
