We have a massive Champions League clash on Wednesday in West London, which sees the current champions Chelsea welcome La Liga leaders Real Madrid to Stamford Bridge.
It’s been a difficult time for Chelsea and their fans of late, but a Champions League quarter-final against Real Madrid gives them the chance to get things back on track.
This is going to be an incredible game and also offers us one of the best locks around, with a sure-thing bet at +130. Read our Chelsea vs. Real Madrid tips and predictions to find out more.
Chelsea vs Real Madrid match odds
Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Chelsea vs Real Madrid betting tips
Predictions made on 4/05/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Chelsea vs Real Madrid game info
• Location: Stamford Bridge, London, England
• Date: Wednesday, April 6, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN, CBS
Chelsea vs Real Madrid betting preview
Weather
A cold, wet Wednesday in London should see the rain stop just before kick-off, although temperatures are likely to remain at 50 degrees.
Injuries
Chelsea: Ben Chilwell LB (Out), Christian Pulisic FW (Questionable), Callum Hudson-Odoi LW (Questionable).
Real Madrid: Eden Hazard FW (Out), Luka Jovic STR (Out), Isco AMC (Questionable).
Chelsea vs Real Madrid predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
When the quarterfinal draw for the Champions League took place, Chelsea vs. Real Madrid felt like the biggest.
Most of the matches feature heavy favorites but Real Madrid are marginal -105 favorites to qualify for the semi-finals with Chelsea at -120.
The reality is that it could go either way with each club capable of brilliance, while both have had uncomfortable moments in the past weeks. These two met in the semi-finals of the Champions League last season, with Chelsea winning the decisive leg at Stamford Bridge before going on to secure a second European Cup win when they beat Man City in the final.
Chelsea are favorites on the night and they’d expect to be when playing at their home in West London, but it’s been a tough month for the Champions League holders. When the war in Ukraine broke out, it put pressure on their owner and as a result of sanctions, the club needs to be sold.
That led to a tough situation when fans who didn’t have season tickets weren’t allowed into the game. Thankfully, common sense has prevailed and we’ll have a full house on Wednesday.
A shock 4-1 defeat to relegation strugglers Brentford on Saturday hasn’t eased the fans' fears, but this Chelsea are often at their best when their backs are against the wall.
For Real Madrid, a 4-0 humbling to Barcelona in El Clasico was cause for concern and there are still lingering doubts that this team can go all the way. They still feel like a team in transition with an aging midfield that’ll need to be replaced soon.
To reach this stage, Chelsea sailed past a poor Lille side while Real Madrid dispatched another French side, the Ligue 1 leaders PSG on aggregate. A lot was made of another PSG and Mauricio Pochettino choke job but you have to remember that across that 180 minutes, the Parisians were the better side for about 150 of them.
There were times when Real looked like a team past their prime, but ultimately their experience helped see them through. If you remember Chelsea’s brilliant Champions League run of last season, then you’ll know that Thomas Tuchel is likely to set his team out to keep things tight and not get beaten in this first leg.
They should go back to playing three at the back with two wings, something Tuchel abandoned in favor of a flat back four in that Brentford defeat. That’s about the one thing we can be sure of with Tuchel’s lineup, with question marks over who’ll take the attacking spots with Kai Havertz potentially starting down the middle. We’ll also probably see Christian “LeBron James of Soccer” Pulisic start on the bench.
I’m still very concerned by Real Madrid’s midfield. Toni Kroos and Luka Modric are iconic but they’re not as mobile as they once were. Against a midfield featuring N’Golo Kante and Mason Mount, they could struggle mightily.
Ultimately when all is said and done, it’s too hard to pick a side in this fight and the draw seems like the best value bet at +240 in what will likely be a tense and tight match.
Prediction: Draw (+240 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
These two teams both showed their defensive abilities during the group stages, with Chelsea conceding just four goals and Real Madrid only giving up three.
Given the nature of this game and the likelihood that Thomas Tuchel will try and keep things tight against Real Madrid, it’s worth betting on Under 2.5 goals.
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals (-138 at Bet365)
Best bet
Death, taxes, and Casemiro getting booked. Those are the three certainties in life and +130 feels like free money.
The 30-year old has already racked up 14 yellow cards this season and always plays the game on the edge. He’s an incredible player and while tackling is his best strength, it also puts him in a position to pick up bookings, especially as he and his midfield partners Kroos and Modric continue to age and lose their pace.
Casemiro has accrued 81 yellow cards and two red cards in 302 career games. Given that he’s tasked with anchoring this Real Madrid midfield that could see him dealing with the surging runs of Mason Mount, Kai Havertz, and Hakim Ziyech, there’s every chance he picks up another card.
Pick: Casemiro to get booked (+130 at DraftKings)
