Argentina are one win away from posting consecutive Copa America titles, giving them three international crowns in four years. Their 30th appearance in a Copa America Final could be the last time Lionel Messi suits up in South America’s biggest tournament, and he’ll hope to lift the trophy for the 16th time in his nation’s history.
Colombia’s last defeat came at the 2022 World Cup, and Nestor Lorenzo has yet to taste defeat in his 28 matches in charge. With players like Luis Diaz and James Rodriguez leading the attack, they present the biggest offensive challenge Argentina has faced in this tournament.
Find out why that bodes well for bettors in our Copa America odds and Argentina vs. Colombia props below.
Argentina vs Colombia picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Columbia to lift the cup (+157 at Betano)
My analysis
Argentina haven’t truly been tested in this competition, and yet, they’ve still looked shaky in defense and have escaped by the skin of their teeth at times. Ecuador doubled up on them in xG and they needed a late goal to beat Chile despite having 2.72 xG on the day. They’ve been bailed out repeatedly by goalkeeper Emi Martinez after numerous defensive mistakes.
Sunday night will see them face a Colombia side that will not only take the fight to them but has shown throughout the tournament that they’re up for the challenge.
Colombia are a side that presses relentlessly, but they do so without breaking their shape. They trounced Panama 5-0 after racing out to a two-goal lead inside 10 minutes, and they don’t take their foot off the gas when they get ahead. They can also control possession, something Argentina typically hasn’t handled well over the past year.
This is a Colombian team that just held strong for an entire half despite being down a man, and could’ve easily won by more than the 1-0 scoreline had they finished some late chances. They’ve conceded just twice in five matches, with a Raphinha free kick for Brazil and a tap-in for Paraguay being their only breaches.
Colombia are allowing just 9.60 shots per 90 minutes, and their 2.20 shots on goal per 90 are second-fewest to only Argentina. And while they’ll likely find shots difficult to come by, they may only need one set piece to find a goal.
That’s because James Rodriguez might be the best set-piece taker in the world right now. His six assists are a Copa America record and he’s had two others wiped away by VAR. Opta credits him with 17 chances created, the most of any player at Copa America, and all but five of those have come from either corners or free kicks.
Argentina has a height issue when it comes to defending set pieces. Of the expected starters for La Albiceleste, only Cristian Romero is taller than 5-foot-10. Colombia has four players at least 6-feet tall.
Davinson Sanchez is 6-foot-2 and has been a menace in the air, and he’s joined by striker Jhon Cordoba at the same height. And while he’s only 5-foot-10, Jefferson Lerma showed against Uruguay how high he can jump.
Colombia drew with Brazil and won their group. They bounced Uruguay from the competition without conceding a goal despite playing with 10 men for nearly an hour. And they have the best player in the tournament creating chances anytime his side gets a dead ball situation in the final third.
It may only take one chance to push Colombia’s unbeaten streak to 29 matches, and at a +157 price, there’s terrific value for Los Cafeteros to lift the trophy.
Lionel Messi odds, prop for today
My best bet
Under 31.5 passes (-118 at Betano)
My analysis
There aren’t many good options on the board for Lionel Messi’s prop plays, but I think the Under on his passes is a sneaky one. His total of 31.5 is a mark he’s reached just twice in his four matches, both coming in the first two group-stage fixtures against Canada and Chile.
He had just 23 passes against Ecuador and only 29 in the semi-final win over Canada. And while his team will likely look to him if they’re behind against Colombia, there’s no guarantee he’ll be seeing much of the ball.
Despite having played five matches, Colombia have allowed the fourth-fewest short passes of the 16 teams involved in Copa America. Messi isn’t going to be dropping deep enough to be attempting longer passes, which means he’d have to be heavily involved in build-up given the Colombians are conceding less than 60 short passes per contest.
Colombia’s goal will be to win the ball back before it ever reaches the forward line, especially since Argentina has attempted the most short passes of any team so far. The problem is, Messi ranks 12th on his team in accurate passes per 90 minutes and 11th in total passes attempted per match.
Colombia know they must deny Messi space to operate, and that begins with denying him the ball and swarming him when he gets it. They’ll tackle him and foul him if needed, and that will help keep his pass total down.
Argentina vs Colombia same-game parlay (SGP)
Columbia to lift the cup
Jhon Cordoba 1+ shot
James Rodriguez to record an assist
It’s a final, so let’s go for a big payday! Much of how I see this match playing out rests on James once again producing magic on a set piece, and that’s what we’re building our SGP around.
Jhon Cordoba is a tall, physical striker who has attempted eight shots in Colombia’s last four matches. He’s put an effort on target in three of those four fixtures, failing to do so only against Uruguay as they were pinned deep the entire second half.
James has six assists so far in the tournament, three times as many as any other player. His dead-ball delivery has been stellar, leading to five goals and two others that were taken away for minimal offside decisions.
I expect Cordoba to get on the end of one of his balls, and someone will put one away — if not him, then the likes of Sanchez or Lerma. Look for James to once again get into the assist column as he captains his nation to just their second-ever Copa America trophy.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Argentina vs Colombia odds
| Argentina | Colombia | |
|---|---|---|
| +118 | Moneyline | +360 |
| Over 1.5 (-161) | Total | Under 1.5 (+132) |
| +1905 | Draw | +195 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 7-14.
Argentina vs Colombia game info
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, July 14, 2024 |
| Time: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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