When Colombia takes to the pitch vs. Costa Rica on Friday, June 28, they'll have the opportunity to secure passage to the quarter-finals with a win.
Given the motivational edge, the current Copa America odds, and the lack of spark shown by Costa Rica in their opening fixtures, my Colombia vs. Costa Rica prediction has this one pegged for a low-scoring game.
Colombia vs Costa Rica picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Under 2.5 (-115 at Betano)
My analysis
There are a few ways you can look at Costa Rica's 0-0 result vs. Brazil in the opening game of Group D action.
On one side of the coin, you'll see a team that was barely able to get any touches of the ball, let alone in the final third. Costa Rica was starved of possession to the tune of 30% while managing just two goal attempts with one hitting the target. Their 0.03 xG was the lowest of the opening round of group-stage games, and it's going to take a hell of a lot more to trouble Colombia.
On the flip side, you have to give Costa Rica credit defensively for not conceding. Yes, a lucky VAR intervention ruled out the opening goal, but allowing seven shots on goal vs. a Brazil team littered with talent is not the worst result. The Ticos appeared well drilled defensively and that's something to hold onto entering game two.
However, with the way Colombia are brushing teams aside lately, this may be another one-way traffic type of game.
Colombia enter Friday's fixture riding a 24-game unbeaten streak (W19, D5), and they've been getting wins in a multitude of ways. If the tempo is high, Colombia has the talent to run with you and trade goals, but if the pace is slow — which I believe it will be — Colombia can hold possession and suffocate the opposition.
With Colombia possibly topping the group with a win, and Costa Rica all but eliminated with a loss, I believe we're in for 90 minutes with very little action in the attacking third.
Colombia vs Costa Rica same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 2.5
Both teams to score — No
Colombia to score first
While I'm expecting a very low-scoring game, I do believe Colombia can go on and do enough to win this game while keeping a clean sheet.
Costa Rica can only defend for so long before venturing forward in search of a goal that would potentially keep their Copa America campaign alive. When that happens, Colombia has plenty of talent to hit them on the counter-attack and make them pay. I see a 1-0 or 2-0 Colombia victory in the cards.
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Colombia vs Costa Rica odds
| Colombia | Costa Rica | |
|---|---|---|
| -278 | Moneyline | +900 |
| Over 2.5 (-105) | Total | Under 2.5 (-115) |
| +365 | Draw | +365 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-26.
Colombia vs Costa Rica game info
| Location: | State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ |
| Date: | Friday, June 28, 2024 |
| Time: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
Not intended for use in MA.
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