When Costa Rica and Paraguay meet on Tuesday, July 2, there will likely be nothing but pride on the line, with Paraguay already eliminated and Costa Rica needing to make up both three points and six goals on Brazil to advance to the quarterfinals and shake up the Copa America odds.
However, if Colombia wants to try and help eliminate Brazil by defeating them, Costa Rica can attempt to make up the goal difference with lots of goals. That's what my Costa Rica vs. Paraguay prediction is banking on.
Costa Rica vs Paraguay picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Costa Rica Over 0.5 first-half goals (+165 at Betano)
My analysis
Costa Rica started this tournament with a shocking 0-0 draw with Brazil. However, after a 3-0 loss to Colombia and a 4-1 Brazil win over Paraguay, they now find themselves in a huge deficit in goal difference regardless of points. This should force Costa Rica into an aggressive game plan, knowing they have six goals to make up.
The problem is Costa Rica have yet to score in this tournament and have 13 total goals in their eight matches thus far in 2024. Seven of those 13 goals came in two games against much lesser competition in Grenada and Saint Kitts and Nevis.
The good news for Costa Rica is Paraguay have had defensive woes in this tournament and are already eliminated from the competition, so they may not see much improvement on that end of this fixture. Paraguay will also be without defensive midfielder Andres Cubas after he picked up a straight red card in the last match against Brazil.
In their first match of the group stage, Paraguay allowed 12 goal attempts and surrendered 62% possession to Colombia. Against Brazil, they allowed 17 goal attempts and 54% possession. While Costa Rica have seen terrible possession and goal attempt numbers against those same two opponents, their game plan must change given the circumstances.
The Paraguayans allowed two first-half goals to Colombia and three to Brazil. They're clearly vulnerable early, and Costa Rica will need to get to scoring early if they plan to make up the goal difference.
Costa Rica vs Paraguay same-game parlay (SGP)
Costa Rica Over 0.5 first-half goals
Costa Rica moneyline
Joel Campbell to score
I do feel good about Costa Rica’s chances to pull off the upset here and get the three points they need to have hope for advancement.
The final piece will be a goalscorer for Costa Rica and that is going to be Joel Campbell. The 32-year-old forward has played 65 minutes through two games and should be the starter in place of Manfred Ugalde with a yellow card suspension. Campbell scored in the Gold Cup last summer for Costa Rica and will take advantage of his opportunity here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Costa Rica vs Paraguay odds
| Costa Rica | Paraguay | |
|---|---|---|
| +280 | Moneyline | +110 |
| Over 2.5 (+142) | Total | Under 2.5 (-175) |
| +220 | Draw | +220 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-30
Costa Rica vs Paraguay game info
| Location: | Q2 Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 2, 2024 |
| Time: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Weather: | Temp: 104 F, Wind: 17 mph, POP: 0% |
Not intended for use in MA.
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