Two surprising participants in the quarterfinals of Euro 2020 will clash on Saturday in Baku, with the Czech Republic taking on Denmark.
Denmark thrashed Wales 4-0 to get through the Round of 16, while the Czech Republic got by 10-man Netherlands in a 2-0 win.
Which of these two great stories will continue into the semifinals? Check out our tips and predictions.
Game info
• Location: Baku Olympic Stadium, Baku, Azerbaijan
• Date: Saturday, July 3, 2021
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, TSN
Czech Republic vs Denmark betting tips
- Denmark (+110)
- Czech Republic team total - 0 (+125)
Read on for complete analysis
Czech Republic vs Denmark match odds
Czech Republic: +280
Denmark: +110
Draw: +220
Total: 2.5
Over 2.5: +137
Under 2.5: -175
Odds as of July 1, 2021, at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Euro 2020 sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAs of 10:30 a.m. ET, 90 minutes before this knockout match, BetMGM Nevada has the three-way moneyline at Denmark +105/Czech Republic +280/Draw +220. Those numbers represent slight changes from the openers of Denmark +110/Czech Republic +310/Draw +225. "Tickets are almost dead even, a few more tickets on Czech Republic than on Denmark. Not many tickets and not much action on Draw," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said. "Money on the two teams is pretty close, as well, a little more on Denmark. We lose on both teams. Draw would be a good winner. We'd take Draw every time in these matches." The total opened at 2 flat (-110) and is now 2 (Over -125), with ticket count 3/1 and money 5/1 on the Over.
Czech Republic vs Denmark betting preview
Weather
The Czech Republic and Denmark can expect hot conditions for their quarterfinal match, with little wind in the forecast and temperatures expected around 95 degrees Fahrenheit at kickoff.
Key injuries
Czech Republic: No injuries to report.
Denmark: Christian Eriksen (Out).
Matchup
| Czech Republic | Denmark | |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | World Ranking | 10 |
| 4 | Goals For | 9 |
| 2 | Goals Against | 4 |
| 2-0 vs. Netherlands | Previous Game | 4-0 vs. Wales |
| Patrik Schick | Player to Watch | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
Czech Republic vs Denmark predictions
Moneyline pick
Their roaring effort against Belgium was definitive enough, but by now, it's clear Denmark won't let the traumatic events of their opening game derail their tournament. After a massive final day of the group stage saw them progress, the Danes answered any lingering questions by leaving Copenhagen and then hammering Wales in Amsterdam. Now, a pre-tournament darkhorse is just a game away from the final four.
To get there, they'll have to knock off a similarly physical opponent in the Czech Republic. While they have played every opponent tough in the Euros, their performance against the Netherlands was their best yet, and they deserve credit for getting onto the front foot upon Matthijs de Ligt's red card for the denial of an obvious goal-scoring opportunity. It was, also, their first definitive victory of the tournament in a number of metrics, including expected goals.
Denmark are one of the most analytically friendly teams remaining at Euro 2020. Besides Spain, who have scored 10 goals across their last two matches, they are the only other team with an xG created per match of 2.5 or higher. For as threatening as they have been going forward, and they should be lauded for the decision to push midfielders Thomas Delany and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg higher up the pitch, they have not sacrificed anything at the back. Only England and Italy, the two most defensively sound teams remaining at Euro 2020, have conceded fewer xG per game than Denmark.
The Danes are a better side going forward, better in defense, and have proven throughout the tournament to have unmatched toughness. The story of Euro 2020 carries on into the semifinals.
PREDICTION: Denmark (+110)
Team total pick
While the Czech Republic have scored five goals at the tournament, the total in itself is misleading. One was an out-of-this-world, once-in-a-lifetime goal from the halfway line against Scotland. Another was a harshly given penalty against Croatia. Then two came after the Netherlands had their best defender, de Ligt, sent off. (And, if we want to be really harsh, their first goal against Scotland came directly off an unsuccessful clearance.)
So, while Patrik Schick will be remembered for the goal of the tournament and is in the Golden Boot mix, the Czech Republic have hardly been an attacking juggernaut this summer. Now, they will face one of the most defensively stout teams in the tournament with little reason to expect a breakthrough.
One of the more impressive parts of Shick's Euros is that he is often isolated up top for the Czech Republic, alone while his team defends in a back four with a five-man midfield ahead of them. He's always at a numerical disadvantage, but he will be even more frustrated against Denmark, whose switch to three center-backs helped to salvage their tournament. With little service expected for a striker battling 1-against-3, the Czech Republic will have an extremely difficult time breaking through.
Not only will Denmark head into the semifinals, but they'll do so riding back-to-back cleansheets.
PREDICTION: Czech Republic team total - 0 goals (+125)
Picks made on 7/01/2021 at 5:00 p.m. ET
Euro 2020 betting sites
As a signature tournament for the most popular sport in the world, almost every online sportsbook and betting site will offer odds for Euro 2020. Check out the best soccer betting sites available where you live.
