England vs Netherlands Prop Picks & Best Bets: Depay Keeps Firing in Semifinal Clash

Prop bet #1: Late-game heroics

Through the three group stage matches and two fixtures in the knockout rounds, the Netherlands have seen 14 goals scored either for or against them. Seven of them have come after the 66th minute, including four of the six goals scored in the Round of 16 and quarterfinals.

On the flip side, England have managed just four goals in regulation across five matches, while conceding just three. Yet, three of the four goals scored in regular time over the knockout stages have come in the final 15 minutes.

Both of these teams have firepower galore to bring off the bench, and it’s why I fully expect another match with late goals. But there’s more to it than just pure substitution availability.

Gareth Southgate has managed this England team poorly, in the eyes of both myself and many pundits. He’s been too conservative and stuck with players like Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane despite calls for them to be benched.

But one thing he’s done well when his team have fallen behind — as they did to both Slovakia and Switzerland — is changing the system around to go forward and find goals. It led to Kane scoring in the 91st minute against Slovakia, and Saka leveling five minutes after Breel Embolo put the Swiss ahead on 75 minutes.

It’s been a similar story for the Dutch. Turkey held a narrow 1-0 lead deep into the match before two goals in the 70th and 76th minute gave them the win. They also put away their fixture against Romania with two goals in the final 10 minutes plus stoppage time.

I don’t see this ending scoreless, which means someone will likely have to make a stand late.

Prop: Goal to be scored after 66th minute (-118 at Betano)

Prop bet #2: Depay-day

There are some in the Netherlands calling for Memphis Depay to be dropped from the starting lineup, but manager Ronald Koeman shows no signs of doing so. That’s good news for us because he’s an ATM when it comes to betting on shots.

The main reason fans want Depay benched is the fact that his shots are often wasteful. He’s scored just one goal through five matches, compiling only 1.96 xG despite having taken 17 shots.

Then again, it’s hard to score if you’re not accurate. Only three of his attempts thus far have been on goal, and he’s yet to test the keeper more than once in any match. Still, he’s attempted 3+ shots in four Euro outings, with his two attempts against France being the outlier. 

Of Depay's 17 attempts at Euro 2024, 13 have come from inside the box. He’s been doing a good job of getting touches inside the penalty area, and he will fire on-site from any angle. He’s also involved on set pieces, with two of his shots coming from free kicks. 

England are likely to allow the Netherlands more of the ball in an attempt to limit the Dutch pace on the counter-attack. That means plenty of chances for Memphis to get on the ball, and another outing with three or more attempts — even if they’re not very good ones. 

Memphis Depay prop: 3+ shots (+112 at Betano)

Prop bet #3: Tijani's time to shine

This for me is a pure value play, as I think the price on this should be closer to +200. However, there’s still a strong chance for Reijnders to be more involved at the offensive end of the pitch given how England are likely to play.

Through the first four matches of the tournament, Reijnders had three outings where he attempted at least two shots. Only against France — when they ceded nearly two-thirds of possession to their opponents — did he fail to do so. In the other three matches, he totaled nine attempts.

Against Turkey, he didn’t register a single effort, but that was more of an up-and-down affair. The Turks were looking to counter with blistering pace, and that forced Reijnders to sit a bit further back to protect against Turkey’s 5-4-1 setup coming forward. He also spent a lot more time tracking back to win the ball.

England will likely cede possession, but their midfield isn’t going to be as compact. That will give Reijnders the ability to dribble as he has during the earlier fixtures, and I can’t pass up multiple shots at this price.

Tijani Reijnders prop: 2+ shots (+275 at Betano)