USA vs Canada Predictions & Picks for Today’s Friendly Match

Tonight's friendly match between the USA and Canada will mark the start of a new regime for the USMNT as Mauricio Pochettino is set to take over the reins (after this game). With plenty of players looking to impress, our free soccer picks believe the USA will be on the front foot throughout.

Jason Ence - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Jason Ence • Betting Analyst
Sep 7, 2024 • 09:35 ET • 4 min read
Christian Pulisic USMNT
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The post-Berhalter era begins for the United States on Saturday when the USMNT takes on Canada in an international friendly.

The Americans await the expected signing of Mauricio Pochettino, with reports on Friday indicating US Soccer officials had flown to Barcelona to finalize the paperwork. Interim manager Mikey Varas will lead them against Canada and Jesse Marsch after The Canucks had a historic run through their first Copa America tournament.

Find out what prop bet we’re targeting in our USA vs Canada free picks and prediction for Saturday, September 7. 

USA vs Canada picks and predictions

My best bet:
USA Wins Race to 5 Corners (-105 at bet365)

My analysis

Jesse Marsch took over the job north of the border, and his Canadian side was a tough team to break down at Copa America. They played compact defense while looking to hit on the break, and conceded just seven goals over six matches as they reached the third-place game. 

When you consider the fact they played Argentina twice and conceded four of those goals to the eventual champions, it makes their defensive performance even more impressive. 

But one byproduct of their style was the number of corners they conceded. Argentina attempted seven corners in the opening match, one of three matches where they allowed their opponent at least six corner kicks. 

The USMNT was disappointing at Copa America, failing to escape the group stage. Gregg Berhalter was relieved of his duties following the tournament as a result. 

But they also played just one match where they started as favorites and finished with 11 players. That was the opener against Bolivia, in which they attempted seven corners while conceding just one.

The way these teams match up lends itself to another fixture where Canada gives up corners, and the USA racks them up. It’s been a trend when they’ve met the past few years and one I’m betting on continuing.

The last time these teams met was in the Gold Cup a year ago, where the Americans held a 13-4 advantage on corners. The last time both teams had their main squads on the pitch together was the CONCACAF Nations League last June, and the Yanks once again came out on top with eight corners to Canada’s five. 

Three of the last four showdowns between the USA and Canada have seen the Americans take at least five corners, and all three times they were the first side to reach that mark. Bet on them to win the race to five corner kicks again on Saturday. 

USA vs Canada same-game parlay (SGP)

USA wins race to 5 corners

Christian Pulisic any time goal

Under 4 goals

Mikey Varas has some selection decisions to make due to injuries and suspensions, but Christian Pulisic is one name he’ll have written in pen. He’s going to take penalties and set pieces for the Americans, and is always a threat to cut inside on his right foot. He’s in outstanding form, and I like him to score for the third time in five matches for the national team.

Canada struggled mightily to score goals at Copa America, and even the advanced position of Alphonso Davies hasn’t helped with that problem. Meanwhile, the Americans cannot find a reliable striker. 

Canada will be without midfielder Ismael Kone and forward Tajon Buchanan, which is a huge blow to their ability to push forward. This will lead to them being a bit more defensive than usual. 

On the other side, the Americans won’t have Weston McKennie or Tyler Adams which means they’ll likely be more cautious as well. It’s hard to see there being more than three goals scored as a result. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

USA vs Canada odds

USA USA Canada Canada
-112 Moneyline +333
+230 Draw +230
Over 2.5 (+110) Total Under 2.5 (-143)

Odds courtesy of bet365.

USA vs Canada opening odds

  • Moneyline: USA -112 | Canada +333
  • Draw: +230
  • Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5

USA vs Canada side and Over/Under analysis

  • The Americans have a price of -112 on the 3-way money line, with Canada priced as high as +333. The draw comes in at +250.
  • The draw presents solid value, given how many key players are missing for both teams. These teams drew in their last meeting, with each team taking one victory over the last four get-togethers. 
  • The Under is juiced on the 2.5 goal total, with -134 the best price currently on offer. The Over pays as high as +110.
  • Only one of the last five meetings has seen more than two goals scored, which was the 2-2 draw last time out with both nations playing with their B-teams. 

USA vs Canada game info

Location: Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City, MS
Date: Saturday, 9-7-2024
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
TV: TBS
Weather: It’ll be perfect weather in Kansas City, with temps in the mid-70s and plenty of sunshine. 

USA vs Canada key injuries

USA: Weston McKennie M (Out), Tyler Adams M (Out), Timothy Weah F (Out), Sergino Dest D (Out), Antonee Robinson D (Out). 
Canada: Tajon Buchanan F (Out), Ismael Kone M (Out).

Not intended for use in MA.
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Jason Ence - Covers
Betting Analyst

Jason has been hooked on soccer since watching Real Madrid and Manchester United in the 2003 Champions League, and has been betting on the sport for nearly 15 years. He has given soccer gambling and fantasy advice for nearly a decade, writing for sites including Rotowire, SB Nation, and The TwinSpires Edge.

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