We've seen 50 matches played at Euro 2020, and there is now just one left as the final at Wembley Stadium is set.
Italy dominated the group stage and continued their great form through the knockout rounds to reach their first Euro final since 2012, while England has successfully navigated the tournament as favorites to reach their first Euro final and return to a major tournament final for the first time in 55 years.
Which of these great teams will be crowned champions of Europe on Sunday? Read on for our Italy vs. England tips and predictions.
Game info
• Location: Wembley Stadium, London, England
• Date: Sunday, July 11, 2021
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, TSN
Italy vs England betting tips
- Draw (+200)
- Under 2.5 (-200)
- Both teams to score (+110)
- Raheem Sterling - Goal anytime (+275)
Read on for complete analysis
Italy vs England match odds
Italy: +190
England: +170
Draw: +200
Total: 2.5
Over 2.5: +162
Under 2.5: -200
Odds as of July 8, 2021, at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Euro 2020 sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonUPDATE 1 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Bookmakers across the pond are seeing huge action on this match, which is no surprise, with soccer wagering wildly popular throughout Europe. At Paddy Power, which operates in Ireland and the United Kingdom, England is now a +140 favorite, Italy is +230 and Draw +288, two hours before match time. And the action might surprise some people. "England fans may well be singing ‘Football’s Coming Home,’ but up to 40 percent of bets we’ve seen so far today from the UK have been on Italy to win," a Paddy Power spokesperson said. "So while their hearts are with England, they're definitely hedging their bets. Twenty percent of punters are betting on Draw, and if it’s all equal at full time, it’s the bookies who will be hitting the highest note."
UPDATE 11 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Four hours before this massive match begins, England remains a modest but improving favorite at BetMGM Nevada, sitting at +145 after opening +170 on the three-way moneyline of 90 minutes plus injury time. Italy opened +185 and briefly went to +180, but is now +210, while Draw moved from +215 to +195. "Ticket count is really close, hundreds of tickets on each side, and there's a couple dozen more tickets on Italy. Italy also taking a little more money, 3/2 over England. Draw would be a fantastic outcome, the best outcome, as usual," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said. Shelton added that in the futures book and to-advance market, England lifting the trophy would be a small winner for the book and Italy a small loser.
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: England, playing at home in the Euro final, went up as a modest +170 favorite at William Hill US, with Italy +185 and Draw +215. As of 12:30 p.m. ET Saturday, England has strengthened its position a bit to +160, while Italy is +190 and Draw +205 on the three-way moneyline of 90 minutes plus injury time. The championship match is seeing two-way play, with Three Lions taking 39 percent of bets and 46 percent of cash, and Italy landing 38 percent of bets/37 percent of money. Draw is getting a good go, as well, netting 23 percent of bets/17 percent of dollars. "It'll be bet big, and both teams are super popular. I see a large handle and a small need, one way or the other," WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. The total is at a tidy 2, with Under priced at -115. "With these 2 totals, we typically need the Under, because the masses bet the Over," Bogdanovich said.
Italy vs England betting preview
Weather
Scattered showers are in the forecast at kickoff of the Euro 2020 final, with temperatures expected around 65 degrees Fahrenheit.
Key injuries
Italy: Leonardo Spinazzola (Out).
England: No injuries to report.
Matchup
| Italy | England | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | World Ranking | 4 |
| 12 | Goals For | 10 |
| 3 | Goals Against | 1 |
| 1-1 vs. Spain (4-2 in penalties) | Previous Game | 2-1 vs. Denmark (extra time) |
| Marco Verratti | Player to Watch | Raheem Sterling |
Italy vs England predictions
Moneyline pick
At the outset of Euro 2020, England were widely seen as a favorite, with a mix of tournament experience, dynamic young players, and crucially, home-field advantage. Italy, meanwhile, rode great form into Euro 2020 and held darkhorse status, until the early days of group stage play proved they were much more of a threat than any regular darkhorse.
It's satisfying, then, to see these two meet in the final of Euro 2020 on Sunday, a fitting matchup between the tournament's two best teams. Italy possess a 12-3 goal margin, while England's is 10-1. Italy have created 8.7 expected goals and conceded 5.6 expected goals, for a difference of 3.1. England, meanwhile, have created 7.5 xG and conceded just 3.5, a difference of 4.0.
While Italy have the edge in midfield, where their trio of Marco Verratti, Jorginho (who will likely be named Player of the Tournament should Italy win), and Nicolo Barella have dominated games, England should have the edge in defense and in attack, as those are both phases in which the Three Lions have been better than Italy during the Euros.
Both teams emphasize their defensive stability and have ridden pragmatic approaches to the final of a major tournament, and that shouldn't be expected to change on Sunday. Of the 12 combined games these two teams have played at Euro 2020, eight have been decided by one goal or in penalties. Even when the talent gap has been large in games for Italy or England, the scoreline has not been. With each side meeting their biggest test yet, don't expect any edge over 90 minutes. Euro 2020 will be decided in extra time or penalties.
PREDICTION: Draw (+200)
Over/Under pick
In extra time of Italy's Round of 16 tie with Austria, their clean-sheet streak, which had lasted over 1,000 minutes, came to an end. Meanwhile, England's perfect defensive record in Euro 2020 only ended in the first half of their semifinal with Denmark. Though neither finalist has a flawless defensive record anymore, it's the tournament's two best defensive teams, with two goals conceded from open play combined, meeting in the final.
It isn't just goals the sides have limited, either, as they simply don't allow many chances at all. At 0.60 (England) and 0.89 (Italy), the two Euro 2020 finalists have conceded the least expected goals per 90 minutes among all teams at the tournament.
Tournament finals are typically very closely contested, with only two of the last 10 tournament finals between the Euros and World Cup topping two goals in 90 minutes. Don't expect Italy and England to buck that trend, and take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 2.5 (-200)
Both teams to score
Though England and Italy both boast outstanding defensive records in the tournament and are set up with excellent organization at the back, it's difficult to see the final reaching full-time 0-0.
With the exception of their group stage game against Scotland, England have gone forward with intent during Euro 2020 and have often created dangerous chances. Their attack has only gotten better during the knockout stages, with a 2.6 xG against Denmark their highest expected goals of the tournament. Crucial, too, is the specific matchup they are in: the movement and directness of England's attack will present a huge danger to Italy's slow-footed backline.
Italy, meanwhile, have long since squashed pre-tournament doubts over the effectiveness of their attack, though Ciro Immobile has, worryingly, gone quiet since the group stage. Helping the Azzurri attack is the addition of Federico Chiesa to the starting 11. Chiesa, one of the brightest young attacking talents in the world, has given Italy a different, more direct dynamic from the wing — and one they have needed since Leonardo Spinazzola suffered a tournament-ending injury.
The Euro 2020 final will, rightfully, feature the two best teams at the tournament. Expect them to match one another on the scoresheet in a tight match.
PREDICTION: Both teams to score (+110)
Goalscorer pick
Though they came up short, Spain provided Italy with their most difficult test of the tournament, and a tactical change was a big part of their semifinal performance. In a surprising move, Spain dropped maligned striker Alvaro Morata from the starting lineup against Italy, with Dani Olmo coming into the 11 in his place.
While it was a shift many Spanish fans were calling for, it wasn't an indictment of Morata's play. Rather, it was Spain switching to a false nine and exploiting the lack of mobility Italy has in the center of their defense. The move worked brilliantly, as defensive stalwarts Leonardo Bonucci (age-34) and Giorgio Chiellini (age-36) were unable to cope with the movement of Spain's attack.
Bonucci and Chiellini won't find much more comfort against England's attack. While Harry Kane isn't a false nine, he does drop deep consistently to help balls be played in behind. Often at the receiving end is Raheem Sterling, who has three goals in the tournament and has created a number of chances with his fantastic off-ball movement and connection with Kane.
If England win on Sunday, Sterling should take home Player of the Tournament honors. Either way, he should add to his goalscoring tally.
PREDICTION: Raheem Sterling - Goal anytime (+275)
Picks made on 7/8/2021 at 6:00 p.m. ET
Euro 2020 betting sites
As a signature tournament for the most popular sport in the world, almost every online sportsbook and betting site will offer odds for Euro 2020. Check out the best soccer betting sites available where you live.
