It’s finally here with Spain vs. England this Sunday in the Euro 2024 final in Berlin. We have a mouth-watering clash between Spain, the team of the tournament so far, and England, who have shown incredible grit and a winning mentality to reach this point.
Will Spain win their fourth European Championship, or will the Three Lions roar and end 58 years of hurt? Make sure you read our Spain vs. England predictions and Euro 2024 picks for Sunday, July 14.
Spain vs England picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Spain Over 12.5 shots (+105 at Betano)
My analysis
A Spain win would be their first since winning back-to-back Euros in 2008 and 2012, pushing them ahead of Germany as the most successful team in European Championship history with four titles. For England, it would be their first European Championship and their first major honor since winning the World Cup in 1966. History awaits the winner, but who will it be?
The Spanish are rightly favorites. Through six games they’ve scored 13 goals, picking up nine points in the group stages before a thrashing of Georgia, a last-gasp winner in extra time against the host nation, and a strong performance to top France in the semis. They’re the team to beat with Rodri arguably the player of the tournament, controlling the game at the base of midfield while young sensation Lamine Yamal only turns 17 the day before this showpiece game.
England have grown as the tournament progressed. They won Group C with, let’s be honest, three dreadful performances.
A last-minute Jude Bellingham bicycle kick rescued them and earned them extra time against Slovakia before Harry Kane secured the winner. They followed that up with a penalty shootout win over Switzerland, with five of the best penalties you’ll ever see. Then they defeated the Netherlands 2-1, with one of the best first performances in Gareth Southgate’s eight years in charge before a later winner from Ollie Watkins secured them a spot in the final.
Southgate was under real pressure earlier in the tournament but confidence has grown hugely in the team. They’ve blossoming in the later stages of this competition and have a real chance of ending their 58 years of pain in Berlin.
For my best bet, I'm going to take Spain to have Over 12.5 shots at odds of +105, which feels generous and has a good chance of winning regardless of game script.
Spain have averaged 17.7 shots per game, second only to Germany in this tournament. They’ve generally dominated possession in their games, scoring 13 goals in 106 shots. However, they’ve missed plenty of chances and have taken to shooting from range in plenty of games. Shooting from range, especially when Yamal can score goals of the quality of the one he curled in against France, isn’t a sustainable long-term strategy.
England, for all of the criticism, have allowed just 9.5 shots per game, the fourth-fewest in the tournament. Their xG (expected goals) against is also lower than any team that Spain have faced so far, showing that they’re doing an excellent job of limiting opponents to taking low value shots.
If Spain run riot against England then they’ll easily cover the 12.5 shots line and get closer to the 17.7 average that they’ve had across tournament. However, we’ll likely see them taking lots of shots, most likely from distance, if England put up a great defensive performance and hold a lead. For those reasons, this wager feels like one which should be game script-proof and worth consideration for Sunday’s Euro 2024 final.
Harry Kane odds, prop for today
My best bet
Harry Kane Under 0.5 tackles (+122 at Betano)
My analysis
This hasn’t been a vintage tournament from Harry Kane.
The England captain hasn’t been at his best and looks to still be carrying from effects from the injury that he picked up at the end of the domestic season for Bayern Munich. That said, he’s still scored three goals, averaging one in two at the Euros and despite Ollie Watkins’ heroics in Dortmund, it’ll be Kane starting the final.
You can get a very generous +122 on Kane having Under 0.5 tackles against Spain on Sunday. They’ll have a lot of possession, which increases the chances of a Spain tackl,e but he’s averaged just 0.7 tackles per game at the Euros, an increase from 0.4 tackles per game for Bayern in the Bundesliga.
Kane will do plenty of work pressuring defenders, but whether he can make a successful tackle is up in the air. At +122, it’s worth backing the Spanish passing machine to evade his defensive efforts.
Spain vs England same-game parlay (SGP)
Spain Over 12.5 shots
Fabian Ruiz 65+ passes
Spain Over 1.5 cards
In addition to my best bet for the game, I'm also going to back Fabian Ruiz to have 65 or more passes.
The PSG midfielder has been one of Spain’s best players throughout the tournament and has averaged 74.71 passes per 90 minutes on the field at this tournament. He’s hit this mark in four of his five games so far with the win over Croatia in the opening game of the tournament being the only time he didn’t.
England have been happy to surrender possession in games, a trend which should continue here and something Ruiz should be able to cash in on.
Finally, I'm taking Spain Over 1.5 cards. Through six games they’ve had 14 cards, with 13 yellows and a red. They had two yellows against France in the semis and five, plus a red, against Germany in the quarterfinals. The cards are likely to flow regardless of game script.
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Spain vs England odds
| Spain | England | |
|---|---|---|
| +150 | Moneyline | +245 |
| Over 2.5 (+150) | Total | Under 2.5 (-189) |
| +180 | Draw | +180 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 7-13.
Spain vs England game info
| Location: | Olympiastadion, Berlin, Germany |
| Date: | Sunday, July 14, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Weather: | 78F, 8 mph winds, 10% PoP |
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