The first game of the Euro 2024 quarterfinals is upon us with Spain vs. Germany set for Friday, July 5. This should be an incredible matchup with Spain, the team of the tournament so far, up against the host nation.
It’s a tough fixture that could go either way, so get stuck into these Spain vs. Germany predictions and take a look at my Euro 2024 picks.
Spain vs Germany picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Spain to qualify (-115 at Betano)
My analysis
We’ve reached the quarterfinal stage of Euro 2024 and the big boys are beginning to meet one another. There aren’t many bigger matches than Spain vs. Germany.
Spain are three time winners of this competition, as well as World Cup champions from 2010, while the Germans have a long history of success with three wins in this competition and four World Cups. This game is in fact a replay of the Euro 2008 final which saw Spain lift the trophy in Vienna.
The Spaniards arrive in the quarterfinals as the best team in the competition in terms of performances. While favorites England and France haven’t really shown up, the Spanish are the only team left to have won every game, smashing their group and dismantling Georgia 4-1 last time out.
The Germans started the tournament brilliantly, beating Scotland 5-1 on opening night but didn’t look convincing despite winning their group and didn’t overly impress getting past Denmark in the last game. However, they are the home side and the majority of Stuttgart Arena will be behind them on Friday.
Turkey’s success has shown us how important fans can be to a side’s progression in this tournament. But this is a hugely difficult game against a Spanish team who balance exceptional technique with real directness and dynamism, and sadly for the hosts, it’s likely to be one step too far.
This Spanish side has a perfect blend of speed and patience. The midfield three of Pedri, Rodri, and Fabian Ruiz can dictate play and keep possession, waiting for opportunities to spring Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams free on the flanks. That pair with their pace will cause Germany real issues, especially Yamal, who is up against David Raum. As good as Raum is he isn’t quite as talented or experienced as Joshua Kimmich, who will be at RB for Germany.
The main weakness for the Spanish is the central defensive duo of Aymeric Laporte and Robin Le Normand, but so far their opposition has failed to really test them. The German attack can do better, but it might not be enough.
Jamal Musiala odds, prop for today
My best bet
Jamal Musiala 1+ shots on target (-114 at Betano)
My analysis
Germany have been a mixed bag at this tournament. After having initially impressed, they’ve gradually looked more workmanlike as Euro 2024 has progressed. The one exception to that is Jamal Musiala, who has been nothing short of exceptional from the first game to the most recent. The 21-year-old is tied for top scorer at the tournament on three goals, but given that Germany are likely to see less of the ball in this game, I won’t back him to score.
Instead I’ll back Musiala to have one or more shots on target. He’s had seven shots through four games so far, using his talents to pop up in dangerous positions. What’s impressive is that four of those seven shots have been on target, giving him an average of one on target per game. When you actually look at the minutes he’s been on the field, that rises to 1.19 shots per 90 minutes on the pitch.
Spain vs Germany same-game parlay (SGP)
Spain to qualify
Jamal Musiala 1+ shots on target
Marc Cucurella 51+ passes
I’ve already discussed the first two legs of my same-game parlay, and I’m going to add on Spain leftback Marc Cucurella having 51 or more passes against Germany.
He’s started three of their four games, having been rested in a meaningless final group game, and he’s certain to start. In those three games he’s accumulated 186 total passes, and he’s currently running with an average of 68.05 passes per 90 minutes played.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Spain vs Germany odds
| Spain | Germany | |
|---|---|---|
| +175 | Moneyline | +185 |
| Over 2.5 (+102) | Total | Under 2.5 (-125) |
| +220 | Draw | +220 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 7-4.
Spain vs Germany game info
| Location: | Stuttgart Arena, Stuttgart, Germany |
| Date: | Friday, July 5, 2024 |
| Time: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Weather: | Sunny and dry conditions. |
Not intended for use in MA.
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