One of the headliners of the Round of 16 in the Champions League will get underway in one of Europe's greatest venues on Wednesday, as Inter Milan host Liverpool in the first leg at San Siro.
Both Inter and Liverpool resume the Champions League in second place domestically but Liverpool, the soccer betting favorites, have proven to be of a different class in Europe and in the Prem up to this point in the 2021-22 season.
The title defense Inter are currently undergoing has been admirable but our Champions League picks and predictions are expecting that gulf in class to be apparent on Wednesday.
Inter Milan vs Liverpool match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Inter Milan vs Liverpool betting tips
Predictions made on 2/15/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Inter Milan vs Liverpool game info
• Location: San Siro Stadium, Milan, Italy
• Date: Wednesday, February 16, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Paramount+, DAZN
Inter Milan vs Liverpool betting preview
Weather
A cool day in Milan will have gotten even cooler by kickoff in the evening, as temperatures are expected to be around 40 degrees Fahrenheit with clear skies on Wednesday night.
Injuries
Inter Milan: Robin Gosens LWB (Out), Nicolo Barella CM (Out).
Liverpool: Diogo Jota ST (Questionable).
Inter Milan vs Liverpool predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
Liverpool enjoyed one of the best group stages, statistically, in the competition's history as they won six of six and scored 17 compared to six conceded. Yet, they look more of a threat now than when the group stage ended to make a genuine challenge for another European title under Jurgen Klopp. They overcame a wave of COVID cases and the African Cup of Nations, strengthened their team in January, and now look to the Round of 16 with a full squad.
Liverpool are challenging domestically due to an attack that is producing at an elite level, with an average of 2.54 goals and 2.44 expected goals per game, and an improving defense with both goalkeeper Allison and centerback Virgil van Dijk rounding back into their typically world-class form. That threatening attack extended into Europe, where they scored at a nearly three-goal-per-game clip while conceding an average of just one per game.
Even with the caveat of Serie A being considerably weaker than the Premier League, both at the top and throughout the table, Inter's underlying numbers are considerably less impressive. Liverpool boast superior goalscoring and defensive metrics and have an xG difference of +34.5 domestically compared to Inter's +23.3.
While Inter actually ended with better xG and xG against figures in the Champions League group stage than Liverpool, those numbers were inflated by four games in a row against Shakhtar Donetsk and Sheriff Tiraspol — not exactly Europe's toughest competition.
On any given day, Liverpool are capable of playing as the best team in the world, particularly now at full strength and with added talent in January. The level they play at towers over any team in Serie A, including its defending champion, Inter.
Liverpool will take a crucial win home from Milan and be sure to shop around for them, as different books are hanging considerably different odds ahead of this one.
Prediction: Liverpool (-188)
Over/Under analysis
Anytime there's a 2.5-goal total on the board in a game with Liverpool involved, it will be nearly an automatic Over from us. Their attack is simply phenomenal and well equipped to go Over that number on their own. Per game domestically, they average around 2.5 goals and xG, with their production not the result of any sort of statistical anomaly.
That form carried over to the Champions League consistently, with 17 goals scored across six games. That included five goals in two games against Atletico Madrid, perhaps the most difficult opposition in the world to break down defensively. To go away to the Wanda Metropolitano and score three times is proof this Liverpool attack can get the better of any team in Europe.
That would include Wednesday's hosts, Inter Milan. While Inter have remained atop Serie A for most of this season, their defensive record has hardly been the best in Italy. The defending Italian champions currently have just the fourth-lowest xG against and allowed three goals and 2.0 xG to Real Madrid in the group stage.
Inter have, however, been buoyed by a strong attack that leads Serie A in goals and xG quite comfortably. Despite scoring just eight times in the group stage in the Champions League, they did create the fifth-most xG in Europe, too. With Edin Dzeko turning back the clock to help replicate the excellent partnership young star Lautaro Martinez had with Romelu Lukaku last season, Inter are capable of finding a goal in any matchup.
That may not help them get a result against a dominant Liverpool team, but it's all the more reason to back the Over here.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (-118)
Best bet
Since returning from AFCON, where his Egypt finished as the runner-up, Salah has played around two hours of Premier League action. His first appearance, a brief 30-minute cameo against Leicester City, was excellent as Salah was immediately at the heart of Liverpool's attack, finishing with three shots on target and a great goalscoring chance saved by Kasper Schmeichel. Starting against Burnley over the weekend, Salah was again intensely involved and helped to set up several chances in an eventual 1-0 win.
Salah's third appearance since returning from international duty will bring his best chance at scoring his first for Liverpool since January 2, when he scored against Chelsea before leaving for AFCON. It will also be an opportunity for Salah to add to his ridiculous production in Europe this season, where he has scored seven times in six matches.
Among Inter Milan's most notable business in the January transfer window was the addition of German international Robin Gosens, who figured to slot in as the left wingback in Inter's five-man backline. However, prior to his move from Atalanta to Inter, Gosens suffered an injury that has him still sidelined. In Gosens' place is Ivan Perisic, a natural winger who, while hardworking, is not equipped to defend at a high level.
Defending at a high level is the minimum requirement for trying to slow down Salah as he operates on the right wing. Inter don't mean that requirement, so count on Salah to score on Wednesday.
Pick: Mohamed Salah anytime goal (+130)
