With no European action this week we’ve had a full midweek Premier League slate of games, the final of which, Leicester vs. Leeds takes place on Thursday. Both teams entered this set of matches in the bottom half of the table, with both sets of supporters looking at relegation.
Will either team be able to get three points here and strengthen their hopes of staying in the Premier League? Don’t miss our Leicester City vs. Leeds United betting picks and predictions to find out.
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Leicester City vs Leeds United best odds
Leicester City vs Leeds United picks and predictions
This week we’re being treated to a fascinating slate of midweek Premier League games with 18 of the league’s 20 sides in action. Thursday’s Leicester vs. Leeds clash is the final game of this midweek batch and it serves up an entertaining matchup that could have real importance come the end of the season.
As we enter this midweek run of games, Leicester sit 19th in the Premier League, level on points with Nottingham Forest at the bottom of the table but ahead on goal difference. Leeds are four spots above them and are separated by four points. At this stage of the season, four points aren’t very much and a couple of good weeks can totally change a team’s outlook for the season. While Leicester know they’re in a relegation battle, it’s vitally important that Leeds don’t believe they’re out of it.
That brings us to Thursday’s Leicester vs. Leeds game, a game which should be hugely entertaining for neutrals. The clubs are both in the Top 3 in scoring in the bottom half of the Premier League, but they’ve struggled at the back. Leeds have given up 13 goals in nine games while Leicester have allowed a Premier League-high 24 goals in 10 games.
Neither team comes into this game in great form. If the Premier League was based on a team’s last six games then Leeds would be 19th and Leicester 17th, but this game gives them both a chance to snap that rut.
Leeds are yet to win on the road and have only one point from a possible 12, but they offer very tempting odds of +220 to pick up their first win. Leeds lost 1-0 to Arsenal at the weekend but they should be hugely pleased with their performance and it gives hope that they can beat Leicester here.
Patrick Bamford missed a penalty for Leeds, which would have given them a famous draw against the Premier League leaders, and they had plenty of other chances in that game. Despite marginally having less possession than Arsenal, they had 16 shots to Arsenal’s nine and showed that they’re a dangerous team.
A performance like that can do wonders for a team’s morale even without winning, and Jesse Marsch’s team will be flying in this one against a Leicester team averaging 2.4 goals allowed per game — against a team who’ve only won one of their last 10 in the Prem.
Leeds are the more organized of the two teams, they are more disciplined, and are playing at a higher level right now. With Leicester’s awful defensive record I’m confident that we see the away team get the win on Thursday.
My best bet: Leeds to win (+210 at DraftKings)
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Leicester City vs Leeds United side analysis
As mentioned above, Leeds are the team who should feel most confident about winning this game. Their odds have moved from +220 to +210 already this week, which indicates some market support for Leeds. Leicester are favorites with the sportsbooks, but +130 isn’t that short for a home team and the draw at +265 is a result that might suit both teams.
We’re likely to see both sides line up with a 4-5-1, although Leicester will have two banks of four with Boubakary Sourmare sitting between midfield and defense — with a lone Jamie Vardy deployed up top. Jesse Marsch’s preferred formation looks more like a 4-2-3-1 with three attacking midfielders behind the forward.
It’s expected that Rodrigo will maintain his spot as the starter up front, but given the impact of Patrick Bamford when he came on against Arsenal we might see him recalled. A lot of Leeds hopes will be on the counterattacking play of Jack Harrison, Brendan Aaronson, and Luis Sinisterra behind the front man.
Leicester’s biggest threats come from Jamie Vardy and Patson Daka as well as Harvey Barnes. The absence of James Maddison, who is suspended, is a huge loss for Brendan Rodgers' team as the Englishman is their star and main source of creativity.
With Leeds' performance against Arsenal fresh in our memories and Maddison injured it hands the advantage to Jesse Marsch and his team should leave with three points.
Leicester City vs Leeds United Over/Under analysis
The bookies think we’ll see goals with Over 2.5 at -138 and Under 2.5 at +118. We’ve seen 80% of Leicester’s games this season hit Over 2.5 goals but that drops to 60% when they’re at the King Power Stadium — with only one of their last three at home going Over 2.5.
Leeds were involved in a lot of high-scoring games under former manager Marcelo Bielsa but they’ve not been as free scoring recently. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55.6% of their Premier League games this year, a figure that rises to 75% when they’ve been on the road.
For those reasons, I’d lean towards backing the Over here at -138.
Leicester City vs Leeds United game info
| Location: | King Power Stadium, Leicester, England |
| Date: | Thursday, October 20, 2022 |
| Time: | 3:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime Video |
Leicester City vs Leeds United key injuries
Leicester City: Ricardo Pereira RB (Out), Ryan Bertrand LB (Out), Wilfred Ndidi CDM (Out), James Maddison CAM (Out), Jonny Evans CB (Questionable).
Leeds United: Stuart Dallas FB (Out), Adam Forshaw CM (Out), Leo Hjelde LB (Out).
Leicester City vs Leeds United weather
There’ll be rain early on Thursday but by the time of kick-off, it’ll be dry with temperatures in the mid-50s.
