Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest Predictions & Picks for Friday's EPL Matchup

Leicester City tends to play higher-scoring games on the road, which has us going with the Under 2.5 as they host Nottingham Forest. That's not the only reason, though, as Forest have played very tight defense on the season as well.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Oct 23, 2024 • 10:09 ET • 4 min read
Mats Selz Nottingham Forest EPL
Photo By - Imagn Images

The Premier League returns in a rare Friday game on October 25 with Leicester City vs. Nottingham Forest.

Both teams will be thrilled to have started the season well and be clear of the relegation zone but they can’t be complacent and will both be desperate for three points under the floodlights at the King Power Stadium. Our Leicester City vs. Nottingham Forest predictions don't see a lot of scoring, either.

Make sure you read our soccer picks to see why goals will come at a premium.

EPL predictions for Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest

My best bet:
Under 2.5 (ODDS at TonyBet)

My analysis

Nottingham Forest are in the top half of the table — ahead of the likes of Manchester United — and just four points off Champions League spots. It’s an incredible achievement, one that has been built out of a conservative, defense-first philosophy. Nuno Espirito Santo's team has lost just once, which puts them level with Liverpool and Arsenal. They’ve won just three games but they’ve found that not getting beaten is pushing them higher up the table, while others fall back.

Leicester City, managed by former Forest boss Steve Cooper, are six points clear of the drop and are coming off back-to-back wins. They play front-foot attacking soccer and it’s getting them goals but also meaning they’re conceding some silly ones. However, despite the goals, this matchup looks set to go Under 2.5.

There have been just 14 total goals in Forest's eight Premier League games. So it’s not a surprise that their form sees more Under 2.5 games than Overs, but the reality is startling. Only one game, the 2-2 draw at Brighton, has seen more than two tallies, with 1-0 or 1-1 being the scoreline in the other seven matches.

Meanwhile, Leicester City tell contrasting stories away from home and at the King Power Stadium. On the road, they’ve had three or more goals in all four games, however, it’s happened just once at home.

Fortunately, this game is at home, and with 75% of Leicester’s home games going Under 2.5 goals and 87.5% of Forest’s overall games going Under, it’s simply the must-play wager. With both teams missing some attacking players — Patson Daka for Leicester and potentially Morgan Gibbs-White for the visitors — there’s even less goal threat.

Both teams will see this as winnable, so we’re likely to see a cautious, cagey game with either a narrow win or a low-scoring draw. The data suggests we’re not going to see many goals and at -118 for Under 2.5 goals, you’re getting good odds.

Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 2.5

Draw at halftime

Both teams to not score in first half

In addition to our best bet, we’re going to back the teams to be drawing at halftime. In their first eight games of the season, we’ve seen Nottingham Forest level at the interval six times. Their conservative playing style isn’t opening them up to early leads or concessions.

We’re also betting on both teams not to score in the first half. When expecting a halftime draw and fewer than three goals all game, with a cautious and conservative away team, it’s illogical that both teams would score in the first half.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest odds

Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest live odds

Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest opening odds

  • Moneyline: Leicester City +147 | Nottingham Forest +165
  • Draw: +245
  • Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-112) | Under 2.5 (-112)

Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest side and Over/Under analysis

  • Leicester City come into this on the back of two consecutive Premier League victories.
  • Nottingham Forest won 2-0 when these teams met most recently in January 2023.
  • Leicester won the last meeting between these teams at the King Power Stadium 4-0 back in October 2022.
  • Under 2.5 goals has landed in 87.5% of Forest’s games.

Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest game info

Location: King Power Stadium, City, Leicester, England
Date: Friday, 10-25-2024
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: USA Network
Weather: 53.3 degrees, partly cloudy, 13mph SSE winds, 0% chance of rain
Leicester City  recent EPL form W-W-L-D-D
Nottingham Forest  recent EPL form W-D-L-D-W

Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest key injuries

Leicester City: Patson Daka STR (Out), Jakub Stolarcyzk GK (Out), Hamza Choudhury CDM (Out).
Nottingham Forest: Danilo CM (Out), Ibrahim Sangare CM (Out), Nikola Milenkovic CB (Out), Morgan Gibbs-White FWR (Questionable).

Not intended for use in MA.
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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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